Oliver Sloup Talking Grains on RFD-TV & Market Recap

Posted: March 2, 2023, 2:52 p.m.

Corn came into the early morning trade on higher ground, but fell flat after a disappointing weekly export sales report, which showed net sales 27% lower than last week’s report and 48% below the 4-week average. Also weighing on corn may have been the absence of any flash-sales this morning, after rumors swirled yesterday morning about China in the market for US Corn. For the day, May corn was 1 ¾ cents lower, settling at 633 ¾, 7 ¾ cents off the high. New crop December corn finished 1 ¼ higher, settling at 570 ½.

Soybeans continued to be the bright spot in today’s session despite this morning’s weekly export sales report coming in at a marketing year low, just 360,700 metric tons, or about 13.2 million bushels. The technicials may have lent a hand in today’s rally, after holding 4-star support during Tuesday’s blood bath. The market rebounded back to the scene of the crime, or the original breakdown point from this week, 1507-1512, which we discussed being a potential target in recent commentary. This will be a bit of a tug of war zone for the market as we look to round out the week. For the day, May soybeans were 15 higher, settling at 1509 ¼. The new crop November contract was 8 ½ higher to 1367 ½.

Wheat traded a lot like corn today, coming into the early morning trade on higher ground but fizzling out, though still managing to close higher on the day. May Chicago wheat was 2 ¾ cents higher to 712 ¾. We still think that there is potential to work to the upside from these levels as we approach the renewal deadline of the Black Sea Grain deal on March 18th. A break and close below $7 would neutralize that bias. A breakout above 730-735 would confirm that bias.

April live cattle broke below trendline support which accelerated the selling pressure, finishing the day 1.02 lower to 164.10. As mentioned in our previous morning commentary, though a continued grind higher wasn’t out of the question, the higher velocity move, or more violent move would likely come to the downside.  Not to say today was violent, but it was the biggest down day we’ve seen in a while and is on the verge of threating some more significant technical levels. 163.00-163.25 will be an area to keep an eye on going forward.

April feeder cattle finished the day unchanged at 193.85, which is a bit of a victory for the Bull camp following yesterday’s apparent blow off top type of trade. A pullback towards 192 is in the cards if the Bulls cannot find their footing ahead of the weekend.

April lean hogs finished the day 1.10 lower to settle at 83.85. This is one of those markets that continues to chop people to pieces, giving traders a reminder that sometimes no position is the best position.

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