Actionable Analysis for Stocks, Energies, & Precious Metals | Morning Express
E-mini S&P (March) / NQ (March)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 3790.50, up 28.25
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 12,985, up 183.25
Fundamentals: Yesterday’s strong finish carried overnight, and U.S. benchmarks are now staring down record highs. After fending off a consolidatory wave of selling, better earnings and tailwinds from fiscal hopes are paving the way for the next leg higher. Amid a stable picture across the Financial sector and leadership from, get this, Energy, a blowout earnings report from Netflix reminded everyone that Big Tech is not passing the baton just yet. Semiconductors have been quietly marching higher, but FAANG has certainly taken a breather. Netflix is up 13% ahead of the bell, crushing subscriber growth estimates and improving operating margins after raising costs. Outside of Apple’s failed high on December 29th the space has underperformed, and Netflix looks to be the first one to set a fresh record since.
Risk-assets found solace in Janet Yellen’s Senate confirmation yesterday where she pushed Congress to “act big”, emphasizing the need for new and large fiscal measures. Today, Joe Biden will be sworn in as the 46th President and his inaugural address will certainly have an impact on the tape today. The ceremony is set to begin at 11:00 am CT.
Technicals: There is broad strength across the tape this morning, the S&P and NQ are looking to set fresh record highs as they zero in on strong overhead resistance levels. For the S&P this is the pocket we have had for weeks at 3817.75-3827.50. For the NQ, we have key resistance that has slowed buying at 13,118-13,156; a breakout above should bring price action to major three-star resistance at ... Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.
Crude Oil (March)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 52.98, up 0.56
Fundamentals: Crude Oil rebounded through yesterday and is back at the highest level since last February. This week’s inventory data will not be released until Friday due to the government closure for Joe Biden’s Presidential inauguration, however, the private API survey will be released after the bell today at 3:30 pm CT. One of the new President’s first orders of business is to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline that would carry Oil into the U.S. from Canada. While this maneuver has helped lift prices in the near-term, the new administration’s rhetoric on curbing the industry has really provided a tailwind since November. Crude Oil is also tracking a broadly buoyant risk-environment and comments through Biden’s speech today on the Oil and Gas industry as well as fiscal policy must be closely watched.
Technicals: Crude Oil’s response to major three-star support at 51.40-51.51 has now sent it back to major three-star resistance aligning with the swing high at 53.60-53.94. Our momentum indicator is rising sharply with the tape and comes in at ... Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.
Gold (February) / Silver (March)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1840.2, up 10.3
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 25.32, up 0.454
Fundamentals: Gold and Silver are ping-ponging around this morning, attempting to shake out both the bulls and bears. Markets tend to do this before a larger move. We maintain our belief that such a move will be higher. In fact, the ping-ponging has attracted added volume, a key component in helping to produce a bottom from this month’s washout. Strength in the U.S. Dollar as firmer Treasury yields have certainly made it difficult for Gold to recover and both will be front and center through Joe Biden’s Presidential inauguration today. Furthermore, we look to messages from a slew of central banks. First, is the Bank of Canada at 9:00 am CT and later tonight we look to the Bank of Japan. Tomorrow, we look to the ECB, and next week the Federal Reserve steps to the plate. Next week also brings the expiration of February Gold futures and options, an event that should bring a much-needed refresh.
Technicals: Sellers stepped in the morning as Gold approached our major three-star resistance that also happens to align with both the 50 and 200-day moving averages. The volume was not enormous during a rather quiet time in the market, however, the volume on Gold’s rebound is the most we have seen since the January 6th reversal. Such steadfast buying and defense of today’s selling is a terrific sign. We now expect Gold and Silver to both close above major three-star resistance at 1859-1864.9 and 25.99-26.07 and begin repair. In other words, today’s shakeout-fakeout is exactly what the doctor ordered, and we will increase our Bullish Bias as long as Gold and Silver can hold out above ... Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.
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