Actionable Research for Stocks, WTI Crude Oil, and Gold | Morning Express
E-mini S&P (December)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 3661.25, down 7.25
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 12,368, down 34.00
Fundamentals: U.S. benchmarks are starting the week on strong footing. Bullish tailwinds are coming from a path forward in Washington, the FDA granting Emergency Use Authorization to Pfizer’s vaccine late Friday, and an extension to Brexit talks.
On Friday, funding for the U.S. government was extended by one week. This paves a path for Congress to pass a budget and coronavirus aid all at once, but the clock is ticking. Markets are reacting positively as a $1.4 trillion spending bill is within reach and lawmakers also introduced two fiscal relief packages varying from $748 billion to $908 billion. Still, there are sticking points. President Trump’s border wall and defense spending will prove as a hurdle on budget talks whereas aid to state local governments and liability of employers are such on stimulus talks.
Although the number of new Covid-19 cases in the U.S. is off last week’s record, hospitalizations have continued to climb. Still, the market is finding solace in the rollout of a vaccine. Distribution of Pfizer’s has already begun, and all eyes will be on the FDA’s fast-tracking of Moderna’s by the end of the week.
It comes as no surprise that talks between the U.K. and EU continued after Sunday’s self-imposed deadline. The determination between both sides to anchor out a deal before yearend is bringing a relief to risk-assets. The British Pound is higher by 1.5% and the weaker Dollar is supportive to the market broadly.
The U.S. economic calendar is bare today, but tonight there is a full slate of data from China, including Industrial Production, due at 8:00 pm CT.
Technicals: Price action responded beautifully to critical levels of technical support on Friday. For the S&P, this was a gap at major three-star support at 3623.25 after the selling was slowed twice by major three-star support just in front at 3635.50-3642. For the NQ, it traded to a higher double bottom at major three-star support at 12,249-12,277 when compared to Thursday’s low and responded immediately. The strong finish to Friday helps pave a path of least resistance to ... Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.
Crude Oil (January)
Last week’s close: Settled at 46.57, down 0.21 on Friday and up 0.31 on the week
Fundamentals: Crude Oil is higher to start the week and broadly speaking, the risk-landscape appears healthy. Price action in Crude was extremely constructive last week, staving off any waves of selling and ultimately this paves a path of least resistance higher upon a wave of positive news. Congress has seemingly taken a step forward, but make no mistake, risk-assets are relying on stimulus this week. Furthermore, the vaccine rollout is bringing a bullish tailwind. This morning, news of an attack on one of Saudi Arabia’s oil tankers has also lifted the tape. A deluge of economic data out of China tonight at 8:00 pm CT will play a crucial role in the perceived demand landscape.
We have been bullish Crude for some time now, calling for tremendous long-term value at $35. This support level was achieved in early November before the latest rally played out. Phillip Streible, our Chief Market Strategist, discussed our intermediate to longer-term Bullish Bias in Crude in an article over the weekend.
Technicals: Price action is retreating from its early morning high, and we find a point of balance at 47.05 with our momentum indicator; we expect a wave of profit taking to play out while below here. Still, first key support aligns multiple technical indictors at ... Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 1843.6, up 6.2
Fundamentals: Gold has failed to trade in positive territory to start the week despite a sharply weaker U.S. Dollar and upbeat hopes on stimulus measures. There seems to be some headwinds for safe-haven assets as Brexit talks continue past the self-imposed Sunday deadline, Treasury yields are higher this morning. As for fiscal talks in Washington, Gold certainly wants to see the $908 billion package rather than a watered-down version without state and local aid. The U.S. economic calendar is bare, but we look to a deluge of data from China tonight; a stronger Chinese Yuan will be supportive to Gold and the metals space.
Technicals: Gold is still working through the bottoming process as the seasonally bullish time of year on December 23rd quickly approaches. Later this week, we will dive into the statistics behind Gold historically from that point on. For now, Gold is hugging our momentum indicator at 1832 and action above here is supportive for attracting added buying. Furthermore, Gold must continue respond to major three-star support at ... Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.
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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.