S&P testing underside of trend line referenced here this week.
Dollar Index coming off trend line and 50-dma support.
Gold failure developing. We referenced likeliness this week.
Pay attention to German yields. Big reversal on 10-yr this week.
- Apple and Amazon both disappointed after the bell yesterday.
- Apple is -3.5% after missing on revenues and pointing to supply chain issues that may get worse into the holidays. The company eked out an EPS beat.
- Amazon is -4% after whiffing on both earnings and sales. Higher labor and input costs weighed on margins.
- Starbucks also missed sales after the bell and is down more than 5%.
- Chevron, Exxon, and AbbVie all beat top and bottom line estimates this morning.
- U.S. benchmarks melted higher into the close (ahead of earnings). The S&P, Dow, and NQ all set fresh record highs. Retreated after earnings deluge.
- Core PCE for September, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator. In line to a shade under expectations 3.6% versus 3.7% expected and 3.6% in August Personal Spending and Income data mixed. Leads into next week’s FOMC meeting.
- Final October Michigan Consumer data due at 9:00 am CT
- China PMIs due tomorrow night at 8:00 pm CT.
- Sovereign debt markets are beginning to balk at policy makers. Both U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen and ECB President Lagarde called inflation transitory and said they expect energy costs to recede. These types of comments have begun to underpin yields and support Crude Oil.
- Bond prices topped out on opening bell yesterday and yields have risen since.
- 7-year auction yesterday was poor
- 10-year yield on a two-day climb back to 1.60% ahead of PCE.
- German 10-year back retesting recent high yield of -0.07%.
- Eurozone CPI at 4.1%, highest since July 2008 high
E-mini S&P (December) / NQ (December)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4587.50, up 43.00
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 15,764.75, up 177.50
- NQ cleared September record high by 0.5%. S&P new high on Tuesday was not taken out yesterday.
- Gaps on charts from yesterday’s settlement and overnight reopen. Bring thick resistance, but strength of uptrend cannot be ignored.
- A range has developed on the week, Wednesday’s low on close 4543.75 and yesterday’s high at 4590 area; a weekly close outside of this range would encourage a directional move.
- Similar range in NQ at 15,500 and 15,780
- Higher floor of support developing at 4559 level; previous gap and now opening bell low yesterday
- Momentum indicators align with our Pivots to create a point of balance on the session, decisive action above or below 4570 in the S&P and 15,670-15,708 in the NQ will encourage sentiment.
Resistance: 4579.75-4980.50**, 4587.75-4590***, 4600**, 4620****
Support: 4559**, 4543.75-4549.50***, 4536.50**, 4519.75-4525.50***, 4507.50-4511.25***
Resistance: 15,764-15,780***, 15,800**, 15,899***, 16,000-16,021***
Support: 15,581-15,591***, 15,495-15,507***, 15,434-15,451**, 15,326-15,341**, 15,273-15,290***
Crude Oil (December)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 82.81, up 0.15
- OPEC+ meeting next week in focus as Iran comes wants back to the nuclear negotiating table. This likely keeps OPEC+ on pace to keep increase at 400,000 bpd. Remember, some nations are struggling to add production. Resulting in over-compliance and a bullish undertone.
- Low on the week yesterday at 80.58 but settled 2.5% higher. Major three-star support at 80.77-81.17 still very intact. Above here, the bulls remain in the driver’s seat across all time frames.
- CoT after the bell, Managed Money increased the previous week back above 300k but still shy of June high 382k. Room to grow is a tailwind but becoming over-crowded means loose hands on down move.
Resistance: 83.00-83.29**, 83.74-83.96***, 84.26**, 84.60-85.00****
Support: 81.55-81.76*, 80.77-81.17***,