Biden-Xi Summit Kicks Off Week, Crude on Back Foot. | Morning Express


Front-month daily Crude with 50-dma. December op-ex tomorrow. Big area to target if further weakness.



30 min chart of Gold, holding near high of range. A break would bring retest to long term trendline breakout 1830.



Consolidation in 30-year yield remains the most important chart to watch. A break will move risk-assets.



Rate futures signal 71% probability for a rate hike by Federal Reserve by June.


- Catch our Sunday writeup; Top Three Things to Watch this Week


- Virtual summit between President Biden and China’s President Xi scheduled for later today. Their third conversation is being lauded as the most extensive yet, covering trade, Taiwan, financial regulations, human rights, and more.

- Slate of economic data from China last night showed improvement in October. Industrial Production YoY +3.5% versus 3.0% expected and 3.1% in September. Retails Sales beat sharply at 4.9% versus 3.5%, but Fixed Asset Investment missed slightly at 6.1% versus 6.2%.

- U.S. Michigan Consumer data on Friday disappointed; Sentiment at lowest since 2011 and Expectations lowest since 2013. Data shows political division.

- U.S. NY Empire State Manufacturing, fresh November, better than expected at 30.9 versus 21.6 expected.

- Commitment of Traders out this afternoon, delayed from Friday due to U.S. holiday.

- U.S. Retail Sales and Industrial Production out tomorrow.

- Walmart and Home Deport report tomorrow morning.

- House will look to vote on social spending bill this week.

E-mini S&P (December) / NQ (December)

S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 4678.25, up 35.25 on Friday and down 12.00 on the week

NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 16,192.75, up 170.00 on Friday and down 159.00 on the week

- Maintain an outright Bullish Bias, price action responded to floor of support at 4620 last week.

- Rebound from midweek lows highlight resistance broadly matters less but does matter intraday.

- Early stall on Friday at major three-star resistance at 4678.75-4684.75 held a retest into the close but was chewed through overnight.

- Similar action in NQ against major three-star resistance at 16,221-16,243

- Rising momentum indicator in each S&P and NQ aligns to create first key support and the fresh bull leg from Friday is intact while out above ... Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!

Bias: Resistance: Pivot: Support: NQ (December) Resistance: Pivot: Support:

Crude Oil (December) Yesterday’s close: Settled at 80.79, down 0.80

- Reiterating from Friday, “We maintain a more Bullish outlook because of our longer-term expectations, however, price action very subdued.” - Wave of weakness should present a great buy opportunity, but traders must keep a pulse on developing fundamentals. - Economic data from China better than expected with improvement in Industrial Production. - Calls for White House to release SPR and reduce rising energy costs. - Covid cases rising across Europe and China, weighing on demand forecasts. - UAE Energy Minister said he expects supply to outstrip demand in Q1, would make $100 Oil unlikely. - If we can get there, tremendous buy opportunity at rare major four-star support at ... Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you! Bias: Resistance: Pivot: Support:

Gold (December) / Silver (December) Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1868.5, up 4.6 on Friday and 51.7 on the week Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 25.346, up 0.045 on Friday 1.189 on the week

- Last week was massive for Gold and Silver. Gold solidified a break of the ongoing downtrend created since failing last August. - Run was quick but could not extend range after poor Michigan data Friday. - Economic data is showing signs of improving in new week, China’s Industrial Production and U.S. Empire State Manufacturing both beat. Retail Sales tomorrow. - Better data will force Gold and Silver to digest recent gains, as it strengthens U.S. Dollar and rates. - Do not forget, U.S. Dollar in breakout, but some tailwinds likely on safe-haven bid due to rising Covid cases elsewhere and can also underpin Gold. - Momentum indicators caught up with price action as of Friday and stand as our Pivots for both. This is a point of balance and continued action below here will encourage a digestion of gains (pullback).... Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you! Bias: Resistance: Pivot: Support: Silver (December) Resistance: Pivot: Support:

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