Breakfast Report - Cocoa Sugar Coffee OJ

“Actionable Trading Ideas that help you stay ahead of the markets”

Cocoa (May)

Fundamentals: The market still leans on a positive tilt with weather supportive in the Ivory Coast. The declining level of volume has been the catalyst of profit taking for traders on the long side. The market has done a good job isolating itself from Coronavirus demand destruction.

Technicals: Swing target of 2950, trend traders have been long since January 10th with price of 2602 and with substantial open equity they should be moving stops higher. The market has many bull flags that recently worked out. I do not want to see this market lose momentum and turn into that November - December trading style.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bullish

Resistance: 2921***, 2950****

Pivot: 2787 Point traders would exit longs and head to sidelines

Support: 2850***, 2820****

Sugar (May)

Fundamentals: Sugar Futures came under pressure over the past two sessions on news that higher prices have attracted more physical sellers in India. I believe it was the psychological 15 handle that brought these participants back to the market. In addition, China’s sugar production levels for January came in higher than estimates. Expect this market to begin to consolidate before heading higher again.

Technicals: The market is back at critical support from the upward sloping trendline with three points of contact. If this is jeopardized expect the longer term trendline to act as next level of support. Trend traders have been long since January 6th at 13.79 but with open trade equity contracting, should be stepping to the sidelines.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bullish

Resistance: 15.00***, 15.29****

Pivot: 14.27 - Point traders would exit longs and head to sidelines

Support: 14.00***, 13.75****

Coffee (May)

Fundamentals: Supply/Demand fundamentals are picking up with multiple positive closes higher. Watch the Brazilian output start to disappoint and Vietnamese production areas not get adequate rain to support the crop.

echnicals: Although trend traders are still on the sidelines, this market felt like it exhausted its downside move and the breakout through 105 caused a swift short covering rally back up to 110. A crossover of +DI over -DI on Wednesday with ADX above both has led to this powerful move. Stochastics have turned aggressively higher while MACD has also turned positive.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 115***, 121****

Pivot: 115 - Spot where trend traders get long.

Support: 105***, 100****

Orange Juice (May)

Technicals: Momentum indicators Stochastics have turned higher but have not reached overbought territory leaving this market in a consolidation phase. ADX sits at 24 leaving the market questioning its direction although trend traders are long from February 11th at 102.30, they are slightly under water on the positions.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bullish

Resistance: 102.75***, 105****

Pivot: 97.10 - Point where trend traders would head to the sidelines

Support: 99.97***, 97.10****

Good luck and good trading,

Phillip Streible

Chief Market Strategist


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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results

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