Breakfast Report - Cocoa Sugar Coffee OJ

Softs Technical Report

“Actionable Trading Ideas that help you stay ahead of the markets"

Cocoa (July) - Sidelines but looking for Long side to confirm itself

Technicals: The trend following system has gone to the sideline with new trade trigger points. Sell Trigger a close under 2075 and a buy trigger above 2434***

Settle: 2311***

OTE Unrealized Profit/Loss: $0.00 (Short closed out on April 6th $4080 gain)

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 2402(Swing High)***, 2563****(200 DMA)

(EXPMA = Exponential Moving Average)

Pivot: 2251**** Parabolic stop and reversal

Support: 2269 (Low from April 6th)***, 2202 (Low move on the chart) ****

ADX: 24.04 (this is now a weak trending market looking for direction)

(ADX= Measures the strength of the current trend)

200 DMA: 2563

Fundamental Comments: Watching the U.S. and European equity markets as well as the Pound and Euro. Easter was mostly a miss in chocolate sales as shelter in place remained in effect leaving kids with just one basket as opposed to the many from extended family. Weather reports for the West African region should pick up this week, helping the crop finish off its cycle.

Previous Fundamentals through out the week below

Thursday - Ivory Coast Coffee and Cocoa Council indicated that port arrivals for the October - March season was 1.617 million tonnes vs 1.652 million last season.

Wednesday - Market is watching Global Equities and looking for bullish developments. I am leaning on the long side and with this small pull back cocoa could be reloading for a thrust higher. Watch the foreign currencies like the Euro to strengthen and help grinders acquire additional product.

Tuesday - Market is still focused on demand concerns and watching outside markets such as U.S. and European Equities. The Chart pattern looks like is forming a V or U shaped bottom. Most of the time we don't get the full recovery and we hit some speed bumps so watch the Fib Retracements. Also, watch for a boost in demand once lock down restrictions are lifted.

Sugar (May) - Looking for Oil optimism

Technicals: The Trend Trading system established a short on March 2nd at 13.81 and the buy stop is at 11.83


OTE Unrealized Profit/Loss: $3785.60


Previous Session Bias:Bearish/Neutral

Resistance: 10.85(18 EXPMA)***, 11.77****(40 EXPMA)

(EXPMA = Exponential Moving Average)

Pivot: 11.27**** Parabolic stop and reversal

Support: 10.02 (Critical Support)***,9.87**** (downside objective - Market came close - traders should be trailing stops)

200 DMA: 12.80

Fundamentals: Market feels like it wants to bounce in a corrective manor and draft higher from rising energy prices. USDA recent report showed an increase in sugar imports but this was mainly due to the hoarding effect.

Previous Fundamentals through out the previous week below

Tuesday - Consolidating and taking cues from OPEC+ looking for an agreement to lift oil prices which should help benefit ethanol demand.

Wednesday- Market is in a coiling chart pattern and more of a coin toss than anything. The key market Crude Oil is not giving it any love. We are going to have to wait for a long and ratchet stops lower because from my experience when the market is unable to continue its direction often times it makes a sharp reversal and an OPEC+ agreement could set a new tone.

Tuesday - Market is in an aggressive downtrend and trying to have some kind of recovery bounce however crude oil and energy prices are the biggest headwind. Look for other opportunities in different markets before taking a stab at the long side. If your still short TRAIL STOPS.

Coffee (May)

Technicals: The Trend Trading system established a Long on Mar 23rd at 121.25 and the sell stop is at 108.48


OTE Unrealized Profit/Loss: $-993.75 (The trade was up substantially with the high equity being on March 26th at 130.65. This was a gain of $3525 and remember as a rule of thumb you should never give up 70% of your meaningful equity.)


Previous Session Bias:Bearish/Neutral

Resistance: 122.00 (Yesterday's high)***, 130.65 (break over this level would threaten 145!)****

(EXPMA = Exponential Moving Average)

Pivot: 127.34*** Parabolic stop and reversal

Support: 117.65(18 EXPMA)*** 115.62(40 EXPMA)**** we are now just above these critical support levels

200 DMA: 111.72 ( Slowly Rising)

Fundamentals: We have to keep an eye on Brazil's crop and the possibility of supply chain disruptions leaving the crop susceptible to a frost.

Previous fundamentals:

Monitoring global risk sentiment and any supply chain issues on getting product. Watch the ICE exchange stocks with declining inventories.

Wednesday - Forget toilet paper, I need my Coffee everyday. The market is so close to breaking back out for a test of 130 it just needs that push over the recent consolidation. Don't chase it though, if you try and front run the breakout you might find yourself treading water as the consolidation may go on for longer than you hoped for.

Tuesday - Market is choppy to higher and could have another shot at the recent highs this week. The supply/demand story has picked up where grocery demand is quite high while coffee shops globally should continue to slowly come online.

Monday: Tighter supply on hoarding done because of supply chain issues. Columbia's production came in well below last year this time. Watch for choppy action in the coming weak.

If your going to play this market, it is somewhat choppy and the Average True Range is 6.85. This means that on the average day the market should move 6.85 X $375 = $2568.75 so be careful.

Orange Juice (May)

Technicals: The Trend Trading system established a Long on March 20th at 105.55 and the sell stop is at 102.73


OTE Unrealized Profit/Loss: $630.00 (well off the high equity, you should have trailed the stop and most likely be out of this trade already)


Previous Session Bias:Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 121.25(Recent Swing High)***, 131?!?****(blow off top from March 18th 2019)

(EXPMA = Exponential Moving Average)

Pivot:118.19**** Parabolic stop and reversal * this flipped on Friday from below to above so a warning shot to the longs.

Support: First wave bounce off of the 50% FibR keep a close eye on the 200 DMA as critical support and 100 below that.

200 DMA: 103.53

Fundamentals: None, technicals only

Good luck and good trading, Phillip Streible Chief Market Strategist 312-858-7303 Follow us on Twitter:@BlueLineFutures Follow us on Facebook: Blue Line Futures Facebook page Subscribe to our YouTube channel: Blue Line Futures YouTube channel

If you have any questions about markets, trading, or opening an account please let us know! You can email us at or call 312-278-0500 Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

23 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All