• Phillip Streible

Breakfast Report - Cocoa Sugar Coffee OJ

Softs Technical Report


“Actionable Trading Ideas that help you stay ahead of the markets"

Cocoa (July) - Sidelines - Keep an eye on the upward sloping trendline as well as FibR


Technicals: The trend following system has gone to the sideline with new trade trigger points. Sell Trigger a close under 2101 and a buy trigger above 2413***

Settle: 2271***

OTE Unrealized Profit/Loss: $0.00 (Short closed out on April 6th $4080 gain)

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral


Resistance: 2327 (High from April 13th)***, 2402 ****(April 7th swing high)

(EXPMA = Exponential Moving Average)

Pivot: 2259**** Parabolic stop and reversal

Support: 2269 (Low from April 6th)***, 2202 (Low move on the chart) ****

ADX: 24.84 (this is now a weak trending market looking for direction)

(ADX= Measures the strength of the current trend)

200 DMA: 2552


Fundamental Comments: Tuesday April 14th - Weak Chocolate demand and shelves full of clearance Easter Candy will probably leave retailers hesitant to load up on cocoa products in the near future. Bearish technical set up if the market takes out yesterday low we could see a retest of 2200.


Previous Fundamentals below

Monday April 13th - Watching the U.S. and European equity markets as well as the Pound and Euro. Easter was mostly a miss in chocolate sales as shelter in place remained in effect leaving kids with just one basket as opposed to the many from extended family. Weather reports for the West African region should pick up this week, helping the crop finish off its cycle.

Thursday April 9th - Ivory Coast Coffee and Cocoa Council indicated that port arrivals for the October - March season was 1.617 million tonnes vs 1.652 million last season.

Wednesday April 8th - Market is watching Global Equities and looking for bullish developments. I am leaning on the long side and with this small pull back cocoa could be reloading for a thrust higher. Watch the foreign currencies like the Euro to strengthen and help grinders acquire additional product.

Tuesday April 7th - Market is still focused on demand concerns and watching outside markets such as U.S. and European Equities. The Chart pattern looks like is forming a V or U shaped bottom. Most of the time we don't get the full recovery and we hit some speed bumps so watch the Fib Retracements. Also, watch for a boost in demand once lock down restrictions are lifted.


Sugar (May) - Looking for Oil optimism


Technicals: The Trend Trading system established a short on March 2nd at 13.81 and the buy stop is at 11.50

Settle:10.17

OTE Unrealized Profit/Loss: $4076.80

Bias:Bearish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias:Bearish/Neutral


Resistance: 10.60(April 9th high)***, 11.68****(40 EXPMA)

(EXPMA = Exponential Moving Average)

Pivot: 11.17**** Parabolic stop and reversal

Support: 10.02 (Critical Support)***,9.87**** (downside objective - Market came close - traders should be trailing stops)

200 DMA: 12.63 (also 50% FibR)


Fundamentals: Tuesday April 14th - Another Chart with a bearish technical setup and looking for one last flush. I was hoping oil could help draft it higher, but remember "HOPE" is not a strategy.


Previous Fundamentals below

Monday April 13th - Market feels like it wants to bounce in a corrective manor and draft higher from rising energy prices. USDA recent report showed an increase in sugar imports but this was mainly due to the hoarding effect.

Thursday April 9th - Consolidating and taking cues from OPEC+ looking for an agreement to lift oil prices which should help benefit ethanol demand.

Wednesday April 8th - Market is in a coiling chart pattern and more of a coin toss than anything. The key market Crude Oil is not giving it any love. We are going to have to wait for a long and ratchet stops lower because from my experience when the market is unable to continue its direction often times it makes a sharp reversal and an OPEC+ agreement could set a new tone.

Tuesday April 7th - Market is in an aggressive downtrend and trying to have some kind of recovery bounce however crude oil and energy prices are the biggest headwind. Look for other opportunities in different markets before taking a stab at the long side. If your still short TRAIL STOPS.



Coffee (JULY) - New month as of 4/14

T

echnicals: The Trend Trading system established a Long on Mar 23rd at 121.25 and the sell stop is at 108.48

Settle:119.75

OTE Unrealized Profit/Loss: $-562.50 for the May contract as of April 14th. If you are long May please roll to July and use the entry of the settlement of 122.00 for long on the trend following system. (The trade was up substantially with the high equity being on March 26th at 130.65. This was a gain of $3525 and remember as a rule of thumb you should never give up 70% of your meaningful equity.)

Bias:Bullish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias:Bearish/Neutral


Resistance: 122.60 (April 9th high)***, 130.65 (break over this level would threaten 145!)****

(EXPMA = Exponential Moving Average)

Pivot: 127.61*** Parabolic stop and reversal

Support: 114.05(April 6th low)*** 113.52 (200 DMA)****

200 DMA: 113.52 ( Slowly Rising)


Fundamentals: The market is consolidating and looking for a reason to break out to the upside. The action is still quite choppy. Remember to look at Average True Range before just jumping into any market.


Previous fundamentals Below:

Monday Aptil 13th - We have to keep an eye on Brazil's crop and the possibility of supply chain disruptions leaving the crop susceptible to a frost.

Thursday April 9th - Monitoring global risk sentiment and any supply chain issues on getting product. Watch the ICE exchange stocks with declining inventories.

Wednesday April 8th - Forget toilet paper, I need my Coffee everyday. The market is so close to breaking back out for a test of 130 it just needs that push over the recent consolidation. Don't chase it though, if you try and front run the breakout you might find yourself treading water as the consolidation may go on for longer than you hoped for.

Tuesday April 7th - Market is choppy to higher and could have another shot at the recent highs this week. The supply/demand story has picked up where grocery demand is quite high while coffee shops globally should continue to slowly come online.

If your going to play this market, it is somewhat choppy and the Average True Range is 6.85. This means that on the average day the market should move 6.85 X $375 = $2568.75 so be careful.


Orange Juice (May) - Feels like OJ's time has past as far as the virus is concerned.......


Technicals: The Trend Trading system established a Long on March 20th at 105.55 and the sell stop is at 102.73

Settle:104.55

OTE Unrealized Profit/Loss: $-150.00 (well off the high equity, you should have trailed the stop and most likely be out of this trade already)

Bias:Neutral

Previous Session Bias:Bullish/Neutral


Resistance: 110.40 ( the high from April 13th),**121.25(Recent Swing High)***, 131?!?****(blow off top from March 18th 2019)

(EXPMA = Exponential Moving Average)

Pivot:115.11**** Parabolic stop and reversal * this flipped on Friday April 7th from below to above so a warning shot to the longs.

Support: First wave bounce off of the 50% FibR keep a close eye on the 200 DMA as critical support and 100 below that.

200 DMA: 103.55


Fundamentals: None, technicals only


Good luck and good trading, Phillip Streible Chief Market Strategist 312-858-7303 Phil@Bluelinefutures.com Follow us on Twitter:@BlueLineFutures Follow us on Facebook: Blue Line Futures Facebook page Subscribe to our YouTube channel: Blue Line Futures YouTube channel

If you have any questions about markets, trading, or opening an account please let us know! You can email us at info@BlueLineFutures.com or call 312-278-0500 BlueLineFutures.com Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

8 views
Logo_desktop_2x.png

141 W. JACKSON BLVD., SUITE 2845

CHICAGO, IL 60604

INFO@BLUELINEFUTURES.COM

P: (312) 278-0500

F: (888) 370-2221

  • YouTube - White Circle
  • Facebook - White Circle
  • Twitter - White Circle
  • LinkedIn - White Circle

© 2020 by Blue Line Futures, LLC. All rights reserved.

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors.