• Phillip Streible

Breakfast Report - Cocoa Sugar Coffee OJ

Softs Technical Report


“Actionable Trading Ideas that help you stay ahead of the markets"


Cocoa (July)


Technicals: The trend following system has gone to the sideline with new trade trigger points. Sell Trigger a close under 2101 and a buy trigger above 2413***

Settle: 2257***

OTE Unrealized Profit/Loss: $0.00 (Short closed out on April 6th $4080 gain)

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral


Resistance: 2327 (High from April 13th)***, 2402 ****(April 7th swing high)

(EXPMA = Exponential Moving Average)

Pivot: 2397**** Parabolic stop and reversal

Support: 2215 (Low from April 15th)***, 2202 (Low move on the chart) ****

ADX: 25.15 (the market has no trend right now)

(ADX= Measures the strength of the current trend)

200 DMA: 2519


Fundamental Comments: Friday April 17th - First Quarter North American grindings came in at 115,591 tonnes - in line with expectations. Once countries come back online we should see a pickup in demand. I am looking at long dated call spreads in this market as a counter trend trade.


Previous Fundamentals below


Thursday April 16th - Still global demand concerns and outside market influences especially from the U.S. and European equity markets. Grinding numbers are coming out for three key regions with Malaysia already a miss. U.S. grindings should be weak as well so Europe is the only wild card.

Wednesday April 15 - Demand continues to weaken, leaving additional pressure to the downside. The market is going to go back into that choppy range we saw last August. I'll post that chart tomorrow. I don't see much of a pickup in chocolate demand into the second quarter in addition, the Ivory Coast should begin harvesting in the coming weeks.

Tuesday April 14th - Weak Chocolate demand and shelves full of clearance Easter Candy will probably leave retailers hesitant to load up on cocoa products in the near future. Bearish technical set up if the market takes out yesterday low we could see a retest of 2200.

Monday April 13th - Watching the U.S. and European equity markets as well as the Pound and Euro. Easter was mostly a miss in chocolate sales as shelter in place remained in effect leaving kids with just one basket as opposed to the many from extended family. Weather reports for the West African region should pick up this week, helping the crop finish off its cycle.

Sugar (July) - Building a base


Technicals: The Trend Trading system established a short on March 2nd at 13.81 and the buy stop is at 11.45

Settle:10.33

OTE Unrealized Profit/Loss: $3897.60

Bias:Bearish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias:Bearish/Neutral


Resistance: 10.60(April 9th high)*** , 11.50****(high from March 25th)

(EXPMA = Exponential Moving Average)

Pivot: 10.94**** Parabolic stop and reversal

Support: 10.02 (Critical Support)***,9.87**** (

200 DMA: 12.54 ( Keep an eye on the 50% FibR)


Fundamentals: Friday April 17th - Market is trying to draft higher after building a base. This is another market we are looking for long term call spreads on a recovery in demand.


Previous Fundamentals below


Thursday April 16 - Market is still watching weak energy prices and focused on the increasing supply with weak demand. Look for a punch down below 10 followed be a sharp reactionary rebound. (Downside objective - Market came close - traders should be trailing stops) 1st level of support is being tested right now. Watch for a close below 10. We looked at long term call spreads in March 2021 for a counter trend trade yesterday.

Wednesday April 15 - Weak energy prices have created another bearish technical setup in the market. One of the biggest issues was the fact we were expecting this tight market situation and due to lost demand we ended up with a surplus. Watch the downside target get achieved today.

Tuesday April 14th - Another Chart with a bearish technical setup and looking for one last flush. I was hoping oil could help draft it higher, but remember "HOPE" is not a strategy.

Monday April 13th - Market feels like it wants to bounce in a corrective manor and draft higher from rising energy prices. USDA recent report showed an increase in sugar imports but this was mainly due to the hoarding effect.



Coffee (July)


Technicals: The Trend Trading system established a Long on Mar 23rd at 122.00 and the sell stop is at 110.01

Settle:119.70

OTE Unrealized Profit/Loss: $-993.75 (The trade was up substantially with the high equity being on March 26th at 130.65. This was a gain of $3525 and remember as a rule of thumb you should never give up 70% of your meaningful equity.)

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral


Resistance: 122.60 (April 9th high)***, 129.05****

(EXPMA = Exponential Moving Average)

Pivot: 126.81*** Parabolic stop and reversal

Support: 114.54 (200 DMA)*** 115.60 (April 15th low)****

200 DMA: 114.54 ( Slowly Rising)


Fundamentals: Market is stabilizing but the longer dated options are pricey. I am going to hold off on options in this market as we have been in a tight range for weeks now.


Previous fundamentals Below:


Thursday April 16th - Stagnant demand at the moment but the chart looks a bit more optimistic. Hopefully we can get a breakout and renewed strength, but again "hope" is not a strategy.


Wednesday April 15th - Seems like we have met peak demand for the time being as anyone who was going to stock pile did so and there is a holding pattern on any more coffee shops reopening any time soon. The trade remains choppy, I would wait for a better setup to take any action in the market.


Tuesday April 14th -The market is consolidating and looking for a reason to break out to the upside. The action is still quite choppy. Remember to look at Average True Range before just jumping into any market.


Monday Aptil 13th - We have to keep an eye on Brazil's crop and the possibility of supply chain disruptions leaving the crop susceptible to a frost.

If your going to play this market, it is somewhat choppy and (for example) the Average True Range has been as high as 6.85. This means that on the average day the market should move 6.85 X $375 = $2568.75 so be careful.


Orange Juice (May)


Technicals: The Trend Trading system established a Long on March 20th at 105.55 and the sell stop is at 102.73

Settle:108.85

OTE Unrealized Profit/Loss: $495.00 (well off the high equity, you should have trailed the stop and most likely be out of this trade already)

Bias:Neutral

Previous Session Bias:Bullish/Neutral


Resistance: 110.40 ( the high from April 13th),**121.25(Recent Swing High)***, 131?!?****(blow off top from March 18th 2019)

(EXPMA = Exponential Moving Average)

Pivot:111.56**** Parabolic stop and reversal

Support: 104.27*** (200 DMA) ****100.00 (Critical support level)

200 DMA: 104.27

Good luck and good trading, Phillip Streible Chief Market Strategist 312-858-7303 Phil@Bluelinefutures.com Follow us on Twitter:@BlueLineFutures Follow us on Facebook: Blue Line Futures Facebook page Subscribe to our YouTube channel: Blue Line Futures YouTube channel

If you have any questions about markets, trading, or opening an account please let us know! You can email us at info@BlueLineFutures.com or call 312-278-0500 BlueLineFutures.com Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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