Breakfast Report - Cocoa Sugar Coffee OJ - February 13
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*Coffee the worst performing commodity of the YEAR
General Market Commentary
U.S. equities prices are under significant pressure this morning on renewed virus concerns and it appears cracks are starting to form in the foundation of this bull market. Expect to see another shock to commodities with the most exposure to China, specifically energies, copper, coffee and soybeans.
Sugar (+16.7% ytd)
The market will most likely back and fill today with outside market forces leaning negative. Energies are back on the defensive and the Brazilian Real continues to make new contract lows. Keep watching for reduced supply from India and Thailand in the coming weeks.
Sugar trend traders are holding longs from January 6th at 13.73 and first level of support is 15.11. Their sell triggers are down at 14.50 and is the spot they would flatten up longs. Trend traders will most likely add to their longs on any pull back or gap open on the night session.
Coffee (-20.5% ytd)
Continuing to slowly climb higher on short covering, I would expect the market to run into resistance at 105.50 due to demand fears. We have seen exports out of Vietnam and Brazil decline recently and could be an indicator that global demand is slipping.
Trend traders are still short March futures at 110.15 from back on Jan 24th while first level of resistance is at 103.25 and buy triggers are at 107.80. That is the level they get flat, not a spot that triggers new longs.
Orange Juice (-1.85% ytd)
This market flipped long across the board on the breakout back on Feb 11. Looking at the March contract, the sell triggers are down at 92 and first level of support is at 96.
Good luck and good trading,
Chief Market Strategist
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