• Oliver Sloup

Calm Before The Storm

Watch us on RFD-TV, today at 9:45 AM CT! Corn (December)

Fundamentals: Friday’s Commitments of Traders report showed Managed Money was net sellers of 12,096 contracts, shrinking their net long position to 242,811 contracts (272,269 longs and 29,458 shorts). This week marks the end of the month, add in Wednesday’s USDA report and you have the potential for a volatile trade. The average estimate for planted acres is 93.787, 2.643 million acres more than the prospective plantings report. US Grain stocks as of June 1st are expected to come in from 3.917-4.546 billion bushels, the average estimate being 4.144.

Technicals: December corn futures were 47 cents lower for the week ending June 25th. That pullback brought us down near trendline support (from the end of March lows) and the 100-day moving average, which now comes in at 518 ¾. A break and close below 514 ¼-518 ¾ could open the door for a retest of the May 26th lows, 500 ¼. First resistance comes in from 528 ¾-532 ½. The Bulls need to achieve consecutive closes back above this pocket to neutralize some of the technical damage done last week.

Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 528 ¾-532 ½***, 541 ¾-543** Support: 514 ¼-518 ¾***, 497 ½-500 ¼**** Soybeans (November)

Fundamentals: Friday’s Commitments of Traders report showed Managed Money was net sellers of 21,924 contracts, trimming their net long position to a mere 80,318 contracts. The average estimate for planted acres is 88.955 million acres, 1.355 million acres more than the prospective plantings report. US Grain stocks as of June 1st are expected to come in from .696-.952 billion bushels, the average estimate being .787.

Technicals: November soybean futures were 43 ¼ cents lower for the week ending June 25th. First support to start the week comes in from 1259 ¾-1261 ¾. It seems like a mile away, but it is not, in this environment. A break and close below that pocket could open the door for a retest of the June 17th lows, 1240 ½. On the resistance side of things, 1295 ½-1304 ½ is the first pocket. It is wider than we would typically like, but that is the market we have. This pocket represents the 100-day moving average and Friday’s high.

Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 1433-1435***, 1455-1460**** Pivot: 1370-1374 ¾ Support: 1355-1360**, 1323 ½-1330 ¾*** Chicago Wheat (September)

Technicals: September wheat futures are firm in the early morning trade after the market ran stops below technical support (640-642 ¾) late in Friday’s session. That support pocket has been updated to 637-640. A break and close below this pocket could accelerate the selling and open the door for a potential run at the psychologically significant $6.00 handle. First resistance comes in from 658-663, this pocket represents Friday’s high and the 100-day moving average.

Bias: Bearish/Neutral Previous Session Bias: Bearish/Neutral

Resistance: 658-663***, 672-676 ½*** Support: 637-640****, 618 ½**, 594-600 ½****



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