China, Eurozone, and OPEC | Morning Express

- The U.S. has completely exited Afghanistan


- China Manufacturing PMI avoids contraction at 50.1, but slower than 50.2 expected


- China Services PMI contracts for first time since February 2020 at 48.9


- Eurozone is grabbing headlines early; YoY CPI highest since 2011 at 3.0% versus 2.7%


- ECB policymaker, and hawk, Holzmann said ECB should slow PEPP purchases in Q4


- Data overnight showed Japan’s Aluminum stockpiles fell 11% MoM. Prices surge to decade high. According to Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs raised price targets for Aluminum, Zinc, and Nickel. This comes after China cuts production due to pollution.


- OPEC+ meeting will begin tomorrow. Committee said despite added production this year at the planned pace of 400,000 bpd, stockpiles will draw.


-Case Shiller Home Price Index due at 8:00 am CT


- Chicago PMI at 8:45 am CT


- CB Consumer Confidence out at 9:00 am CT.

Bill Baruch joined CNBC’s Trading Nation yesterday to lay out one of his best trade ideas for September. Here is a hint: it is a hedge.

E-mini S&P (September) / NQ (Sept)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4525.25, up 19.75


NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 15,597.50, up 171.00


- Strong session yesterday, extended gains to new records overnight, but S&P set to open about 0.5% from overnight highs and below yesterday’s post-bell rally low.


- Major three-star support in S&P comes in at 4502.25-4505.50 and aligns with intraday gap from Friday’s close.


- Similar major three-star support in NQ at 15,426-15,499


- Momentum indicators are denoted as our Pivots and for the S&P aligns with previous resistance that it did not settle above yesterday.


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Bias: Neutral


Resistance: 4540.25-4543.50***, 4575.50**


Pivot: 4525.75-4529***


Support: 4509-4510.50**, 4502.25-4505.50***, 4488.50-4492.25***, 4471-4473.75**, 4462.50-4466.50***, 4454.25-4455.25**, 4434-4437***

NQ (September)


Resistance: 15,634-15,677***, 15,905**, 16,000-16,046***


Pivot: 15,600


Support: 15,426-15,449***, 15,364-15,397*, 15,274-15,308***, 15,150-15,194***

Crude Oil (October)


Last yesterday’s close: Settled at 69.21, up 0.47


- Bill Baruch joined CNBC’s Trading Nation yesterday to discuss the impact of Hurricane Ida and OPEC+


- Price action stalled into resistance yesterday, and left a wide range bar; today’s close technically critical ahead of a very fundamental day tomorrow.


- Slower than expected China Manufacturing weighed on sentiment early last night, but expect OPEC+ volatility


- Pivot is our momentum indicator, some near-term exhaustion while below here


- First key support at 68.25 has contained waves of selling


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Bias: Neutral


Resistance: 69.02-69.39**, 69.64-69.79***


Pivot: 68.77


Support: 68.25**, 67.42-67.77***, 66.62-66.92**, 66.00**, 65.64-65.69***

Gold (December) / Silver (December)


Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1812.2, down 7.3


Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 24.006, down 0.104


- Gold and Silver failed to follow through overnight Sunday and started on their backfoot during U.S. hours


- Strong overhead resistance has so far contained rally attempts despite a weaker U.S. Dollar


- Overnight jump on base metal discussion, but tightening conversation out of Eurozone offset gains


- Supports are underpinning a consolidation as Gold and Silver digest Friday’s rally


- Pivots and point of balance on a closing basis will be crucial in signaling near-term exhaustion


Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.

Bias: Neutral


Resistance: 1822.5**, 1835-1840***


Pivot: 1816.5


Support: 1808.9***, 1798-1801.5**, 1791.4**, 1780-1784***

Silver (Dec)


Resistance: 24.24-24.38***, 24.68-24.85***, 25.64***


Pivot: 24.08


Support: 23.80-23.88***, 23.30-23.42***



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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.


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