- The U.S. has completely exited Afghanistan
- China Manufacturing PMI avoids contraction at 50.1, but slower than 50.2 expected
- China Services PMI contracts for first time since February 2020 at 48.9
- Eurozone is grabbing headlines early; YoY CPI highest since 2011 at 3.0% versus 2.7%
- ECB policymaker, and hawk, Holzmann said ECB should slow PEPP purchases in Q4
- Data overnight showed Japan’s Aluminum stockpiles fell 11% MoM. Prices surge to decade high. According to Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs raised price targets for Aluminum, Zinc, and Nickel. This comes after China cuts production due to pollution.
- OPEC+ meeting will begin tomorrow. Committee said despite added production this year at the planned pace of 400,000 bpd, stockpiles will draw.
-Case Shiller Home Price Index due at 8:00 am CT
- Chicago PMI at 8:45 am CT
- CB Consumer Confidence out at 9:00 am CT.
E-mini S&P (September) / NQ (Sept)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4525.25, up 19.75
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 15,597.50, up 171.00
- Strong session yesterday, extended gains to new records overnight, but S&P set to open about 0.5% from overnight highs and below yesterday’s post-bell rally low.
- Major three-star support in S&P comes in at 4502.25-4505.50 and aligns with intraday gap from Friday’s close.
- Similar major three-star support in NQ at 15,426-15,499
- Momentum indicators are denoted as our Pivots and for the S&P aligns with previous resistance that it did not settle above yesterday.
Resistance: 4540.25-4543.50***, 4575.50**
Support: 4509-4510.50**, 4502.25-4505.50***, 4488.50-4492.25***, 4471-4473.75**, 4462.50-4466.50***, 4454.25-4455.25**, 4434-4437***
Resistance: 15,634-15,677***, 15,905**, 16,000-16,046***
Support: 15,426-15,449***, 15,364-15,397*, 15,274-15,308***, 15,150-15,194***
Crude Oil (October)
Last yesterday’s close: Settled at 69.21, up 0.47
- Price action stalled into resistance yesterday, and left a wide range bar; today’s close technically critical ahead of a very fundamental day tomorrow.
- Slower than expected China Manufacturing weighed on sentiment early last night, but expect OPEC+ volatility
- Pivot is our momentum indicator, some near-term exhaustion while below here
- First key support at 68.25 has contained waves of selling
Resistance: 69.02-69.39**, 69.64-69.79***
Support: 68.25**, 67.42-67.77***, 66.62-66.92**, 66.00**, 65.64-65.69***
Gold (December) / Silver (December)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1812.2, down 7.3
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 24.006, down 0.104
- Gold and Silver failed to follow through overnight Sunday and started on their backfoot during U.S. hours
- Strong overhead resistance has so far contained rally attempts despite a weaker U.S. Dollar
- Overnight jump on base metal discussion, but tightening conversation out of Eurozone offset gains
- Supports are underpinning a consolidation as Gold and Silver digest Friday’s rally
- Pivots and point of balance on a closing basis will be crucial in signaling near-term exhaustion
Resistance: 1822.5**, 1835-1840***
Support: 1808.9***, 1798-1801.5**, 1791.4**, 1780-1784***
Resistance: 24.24-24.38***, 24.68-24.85***, 25.64***
Support: 23.80-23.88***, 23.30-23.42***
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