Crosswinds, OPEC+, and China | Morning Express


Crude Oil trading to highest since Nov 2014. 60-minute chart setup.




Gold good bounce to finish last week, but faces trend line resistance overhead.



- Economic data in focus this week, Nonfarm Payroll due Friday. Check out our weekly Top Three Things to Watch this Week.

- China on holiday, Golden Week, through Thursday

- OPEC+ meeting in focus. The cartel is adding 400,000 bpd each month through next September. They are expected to stay the course, not adding further barrels despite Brent at $80. They are also expected to signal the ongoing fragility of the market and the potential of a surplus in first half next year.

- Breaking News: OPEC+ ended meeting almost immediately and stuck with prearranged production plans. Crude Oil traded above $77, highest since November 2014.

- Congress is on the hot seat. Two weeks to raise the debt ceiling or the U.S. faces default, weighs on sentiment. Potential progress on less infrastructure?

- China’s Evergrande saga drags out, weighs on sentiment.

- U.S.-China trade remains lukewarm at best; weighs on sentiment

- Supply chain concerns are mounting ahead of the holiday season, weighs on sentiment

- Tesla says what supply chain issues. Stock up 2.5% premarket on strong deliveries.

- Facebook in the spotlight; potentially could weigh on sentiment.

- U.S. Dollar Index is down, helping to buoy risk-assets.

- Factory Orders due at 9:00 am CT

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E-mini S&P (December) / NQ (December)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4343.75, up 46.00

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 14,761.75, up 79.25

- Bullish wave Friday played out; new quarter, new month, fresh start.

- Rally through last night stalled at major three-star resistance in both S&P and NQ; 4366-4373 and 14,807-14,829.

- Pivots align with our momentum indicators create a point of balance on the session; bulls must defend here through first hour.

- Shelf in S&P built at 4308.50-4312.75 ahead of Friday afternoon; break below here would encourage added selling

- Rare major four-star support stands at 4275.25-4293.75; close below here bearish. Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 4340-4343.75**, 4366-4373***, 4399.75*** Pivot: Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.

Crude Oil (November) Yesterday’s close: Settled at 75.88, up 0.85

- We remain Bullish in Bias; strong close today post-OPEC+ could be a driving factor to $80 quickly

- Very healthy technical setup; bullish pennant on daily and inverse head and shoulders seen intraday through last week.

- High of the year is at 76.98.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral Resistance: 76.98***, 80.00*** Pivot: Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.

Gold (December) / Silver (December) Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1758.4, up 1.4

Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 22.536, up 0.489

- Early weakness in precious metals is rebounding on U.S. Dollar weakness

- We remain Bullish in Bias but must see continued construction.

- China Golden Week can bring a softness to precious metals, though proves to be a buy opportunity for strength in the week following. China back on Friday.

- Low of the morning so far held first key support in Gold.

- More critically, low in Silver held major three-star support in Silver at 22.02-22.35; close below negative and encourages selling.

- Positive settlements needed today to power through trend line resistance.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral Resistance: 1768-1770**, 1777**, 1782.8-1784*** Pivot: 1756-1758 Support: Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.



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