Crude, Rates, Dollar Higher to Start Week | Morning Express


30-year Bond yield breaks above trend line on futures movement. Bonds closed.



S&P line in the sand rare major four-star resistance. Must close above. 50 dma


DX building a pennant. Break lower would be big tailwind to commodities. 50 dma.


Gold consolidates. Elevated DX and rising rates keeping rallies in check. 50 dma.


- Columbus Day, bank and government holiday, but markets fully open.

- Do not miss our Top Three Things to Watch this Week, it dives deeper into Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll report, looks ahead to Wednesday’s CPI data, and glances at earnings schedule.

- Job growth on Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll whiffed at 194k versus 500k expected, perplexing analyst.

- Job growth lags as people do not come back to work even as some benefits dissipate. Participation Rate dropped to 61.6% from 61.7% and Unemployment Rate dropped to 4.8% from 5.2%, a new pandemic low.

- Wages pushed higher to encourage workers; Average Hourly Earnings grew +0.6% MoM and 4.6% YoY.

- Wage growth stokes the inflation argument just as Crude Oil trades above $80.

- Crude early high of 82.18, highest since October 2014.

- Bond market closed for the holiday, but big level/trend line on the 30-year yield being violated on futures weakness.

- Goldman Sachs lowered its growth forecast for 2021 and 2022, blamed consumer spending. Lower growth and higher inflation = stagflation.

- Low job growth and fears of stagflation ripple through risk sentiment just as higher rates weigh on Tech specifically.

- U.S. JOLTs Job Openings tomorrow and Treasury auctions

- Bank earnings begin Wednesday. Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning. E-mini S&P (December) / NQ (Dec)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4382.25, down 7.75 on Friday and up 38.50 on the week

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled 14,808.25, down 73.00 on Friday and up 46.50 on the week - Rare major four-star resistance in the S&P and major three-star resistance in the NQ each held a perfect test last week. - First waves of major three-star support held Friday but violated decisively overnight. - Due to strength of bounce midweek last week and volume behind it, we view the levels below as strong supports, multiple layers of major three-star below. - Pivot brings a point of balance; steady action above the Pivot levels detailed below will pave the way for higher prices. A failure to do so will force construction against supports.... Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning. Crude Oil (November) Yesterday’s close: Settled at 79.35, up 1.05 on Friday and 3.47 on the week - Highest WTI since October 2014 - Only a close below 78.30-78.63 will break near-term uptrend and still strong support at previous high of 76.98. - We have had a Bullish Bias, but believe it is now time to begin capitalizing on strength. - Last week we said entirely possible to see $85 before November expiration and maintain this belief. - Concerns rising energy costs will weigh on economies, India latest to make this point. - OPEC remains steadfast, and over compliance signals a struggle to bring back Oil - Baker Hughes reported 5 Oil rigs added last week. Only at levels of April 2020. - First layer of major three-star support at ... Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning. Gold (December) / Silver (December) Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1757.4, down 1.8 on Friday and 1.0 on the week Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 22.705, up 0.047 on Friday and 0.169 on the week - Very disappointing action in metals on Friday’s job miss. Gold gained 1.5% to our major three-star resistance at 1782.8-1784 and gave it all back. Silver failed at major three-star resistance at 23.35. - Rising rates on inflation is weighing on Gold. U.S. Dollar not backing off. - We are Neutral because of Friday’s reversal, remain upbeat over longer-term, but market must work through Friday’s damage. - Major three-star support in Gold now comes in at ... Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.

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