• Oliver Sloup

Daily Grain Market Update

Corn (December)

Fundamentals: Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed good/excellent ratings for corn dropped to 69%, a 2% decline (trade was expecting a 3% decline). Iowa’s good/excellent ratings dropped 10%, largely baked into the cake in the recent 25-cent rally. The Pro Farmer crop tour started yesterday; this will continue to be a big focus during this week’s trade. Yesterday’s weekly export inspections came in at 1,000,000 metric tons, this was near the top end of estimates.

Technicals: The market traded into our 4-star resistance pocket; we have had that defined as 343 ¾-346. This pocket represents the gap from July 10th, a key retracement, and other previously important price points. We were working with clients yesterday to reward the market and recent rally, selling against meaningful resistance. September options expiration on Friday could also keep a lid on near term follow-through.

Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 343 ¾-346****, 350** Pivot: 337 ½-339 ¼ Support: 326-330***, 320-322** Soybeans (November)

Fundamentals: Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed good/excellent ratings for corn dropped to 69%, a 2% decline (trade was expecting a 3% decline). Iowa’s good/excellent ratings dropped 8%, largely baked into the cake in the nearly 50-cent rally we have seen over the last week. Hot and dry temperatures are raising concerns for some areas, something to keep on your radar this week. The Pro Farmer crop tour started yesterday; this will continue to be a big focus this week. Weekly export inspections came in at 785,000 metric tons, near the top end of expectations.

Technicals: Soybeans punched through the top end of our 4-star resistance pocket at 911 ½, which could spur some additional follow-through to 923-925 ¼. With that said, we believe this is a good area to consider rewarding the rally. Yesterday, we started sprinkling in some sell orders with clients, both speculative and hedge. September options expiration on Friday could also keep a lid on near term follow-through. We do not want to be paralyzed by hope.

Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 923-925 ¼*** Pivot: 905 ½-911 ½ Support: 883-887 ¾***, 866 ¼-873**** Chicago Wheat (September)

Fundamentals: September wheat futures rallied yesterday on the back of spillover momentum from corn and beans. The USDA announced a sale of 130,000 metric tons of HRW to Unknown for 2020/2021 which helped too. Crop Progress showed spring wheat harvest is 30% complete with good/excellent conditions at 70%, down 3% from last week. September options expiration on Friday could also keep a lid on near term follow-through.

Technicals: The market rallied into our resistance pocket, 517 ½-523, a pocket that we said, “We would be looking to sell”, in yesterday’s report. If the Bulls can chew through this pocket, we would take our medicine and look for another setup. Today’s pivot point comes in at 510, a close below here could take us back to 496 ½-500.

Bias: Bearish/Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Resistance: 517 ½-523***, 532-535 ½*** Pivot: 496 ½-500 Support: 481**, 471***


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Oliver Sloup

Vice President

312-837-3938

Oliver@Bluelinefutures.com

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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