Daily Grain Marketing Outlook
Fundamentals: Analysts and traders are keeping a close eye on the ever-changing and conflicting forecasts; this will likely keep volatility elevated and give nimble participants plenty of opportunities to capitalize on both sides of the market. Friday’s WASDE report will likely be less exciting than the quarterly report, there have only been 4 times in the last 20 years that we have seen yield changes. Ending stocks are expected to come in near 2.683 billion bushels.
Technicals: The market has retreated into our 4-star resistance pocket, if you had reduced long exposure or went short ahead of last weekend, this is a spot to look at buying back (as mentioned in yesterday’s report). We have defined this pocket as 346-349 ½. This pocket represents previously important price points, over the last 3 months. A failure to defend this pocket on a closing basis could lead to a further decline, but it is an appealing risk/reward set up to buy on the first test.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 360-363 ½**, 370-374****
Support: 346-349 ½****, 338 ¼-339***
Fundamentals: The market retreated yesterday which has spilled into early morning weakness. Attention is on the weather, and there are conflicting forecasts. We have been urging people to take hot and dry forecasts with a grain of salt, it is normal to have that weather in the Midwest during the month of July. Friday’s WASDE report is expected to show ending stocks at 414 million bushels. A change in yield is not expected, we have only seen that 3 times in the last 20 years.
Technicals: November soybeans failed against technical resistance Sunday night which has led to profit-taking from recent buyers. The market has pulled back into our 4-star support pocket near $9.00, If you are bullish beans and reduced against resistance, this is a spot to consider getting exposure back on. A break and close below this pocket could lead to another leg lower, 877 ½-882 ¼. This pocket represents a key retracement, the top end of the range in March and June, along with other previously important price points. The Bulls have a technical advantage until we see consecutive closes back below this pocket.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 913 ½**, 923-927 ¼****
Pivot: 900-904 ¼
Support: 877 ½-882 ¼****
Chicago Wheat (September)
Technicals: The market is trying to carve out a near term low as prices linger in between significant support and resistance levels. Our bias is Neutral, but consecutive closes above 497-502 ¼ could start to turn the tide, in favor of the bull camp. A break below 481-485 ½ could open the door for new contract lows.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 497-502 ¼****, 517 ½***
Support: 481-485 ½***, 471-475****
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Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com and 312-837-3938
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.