Volatility swept through the agricultural markets in the overnight session after White House adviser Peter Navarro told Fox News that the trade deal with China is over, 30 minutes later he walked those comments back when talking with the Wall Street Journal.
BREAKING: Our Ag Alert program issued a new trade recommendation for corn yesterday, contact us to learn more! Info@BlueLineFutures.com or 312-278-0500
Fundamentals: Corn futures saw pressure to start the week, after a weekend of decent weather did little to add premium to the market. Crop Progress was released after the close, that showed good/excellent conditions at 72%, 1% better than last week. 2% of the crop is silking. July option expiration is on Friday, there is a lot of open interest at the 330 strike, for puts and calls. This may act as a magnet into the back half of the week, with prices trading below that level we think there is some near-term value to the buy-side.
Technicals: The market posted lower highs last week and lower lows in the overnight session, a caution flag for the Bull camp. In the fundamental section above, we mentioned liking the buy-side at these levels ahead of option expiration, but the expectations past that are tempered. If the Bulls fail to defend 323-325 on a closing basis, we could see a technical breakdown. Significant resistance remains intact from 332-334 ¾.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 332-334 ¾****, 343 ¼-344 ¾**
Support: 323-325***, 316-317 ¾***, 308 ¼-310***
Fundamentals: July soybeans hit a speed bump last night as headlines caused some panic and confusion, the market has digested the information and is back near unchanged. Crop Progress was released yesterday afternoon, that showed planting progress is 96% complete and good/excellent ratings at 70%, 2% lower than last week.
Technicals: The market saw a spike in volatility last night, but the market managed to defend 4-star technical support and mark higher lows. Significant support remains intact from 857-861 ¼, we believe the Bull camp has the advantage until we see a breakdown below this pocket. With that said, the Bulls still need to chew through resistance to stage another leg higher, we have defined resistance as 877 ½-882 ¼.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 877 ½-882 ¼***, 902***
Pivot: 869 ½
Support: 857-861 ¼****, 829-834****, 818-821***
Chicago Wheat (July)
Fundamentals: Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed winter wheat harvest at 29% complete, 1% slower than the trade had expected. Good/excellent ratings for winter wheat came in at 52%, 2% better than last week. Spring wheat ratings are 75% good/excellent, 6% lower than last week and 5% below expectations.
Techncials: Chicago wheat futures defended Friday’s lows and recovered into the afternoon session. Broad volatility in grains overnight has halted any momentum that was building, but that is not to say the relief rally is done, the floor session will be very telling. Previous support is now resistance, the Bulls need to reclaim ground above 491 ¾-494 ¼ to attract new buyers into the market.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 502 ¼-505 ¾**, 512 ¼-514 ¼***
Pivot: 491 ¾-494 ¼
Support: 468 ¼****
Reach out to learn more about our new Ag Trade Alerts program or Sign up for your FREE trial of our daily commodity reports!
Call/Text/Email, Oliver with any questions.
Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com and 312-837-3938
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.