Daily Grain Marketing Update
Fundamentals: Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed good/excellent ratings at 72%, 3% better than last week, and a notch above expectations. Weekly Export Inspections came in at 797,000 metric tons, below the low end of expectations. As mentioned in previous reports/tv/radio interviews, we see a lot of fundamental headwinds that could keep a lid on any meaningful rally.
Technicals: The recent trading range is being threatened but remains intact. We have defined support as 330-332 ¼ for support, and 340-344 as resistance. A breakout or a breakdown from these pockets could lead to a bigger directional move. The Bear camp has an advantage as potential weather premium evaporates as time ticks on. Our bias remains Neutral, but there are shorter-term opportunities for those looking to take small bites out of the market.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 349 ¼-350***, 360-363 ½****
Support: 330 ¼-332 ¼***, 322**
Fundamentals: Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed good/excellent ratings at 72%, 3% better than last week, and slightly better than expectations. Weekly Export Inspections came in at 473,000 metric tons, within the range of expectations. The USDA announced another sale of 132,000 metric tons to China for 2020/2021. They also announced a sale of 250,000 metric tons to Mexico for 2020/2021. This was the 10th consecutive trading day with a daily sale.
Technicals: The soybean chart failed to get out above the top end of the range, from the last week. A better than expected Crop Progress report has the market retreating in the early morning trade, right back to our pivot pocket, 886 ¾-889 ¾. The Bulls need to defend this pocket on a closing basis to stay in the driver’s seat. A break and close below this pocket would neutralize our near-term bias.
Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 905 ½-911 ½****
Pivot: 886 ¾-889 ¾
Support: 866 ¼-873****
Chicago Wheat (September)
Fundamentals: Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed winter wheat harvest is 81% complete, 2% behind expectations but in line with the average pace. Spring wheat ratings came in at 70% good/excellent, 2% better than last week, and above expectations.
Technicals: The market closed below our pivot pocket, 532-535 ½. This opens the door for a potential retest of our 4-star support pocket, 517 ½-523. As mentioned in yesterday’s report, we continue to favor the sell-side. Consecutive closes back above our pivot pocket would neutralize our near-term bias.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 546 ¼-551 3/4***
Pivot: 532-535 ½
Support: 517 ½-523****, 496 ½-500***
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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.