Deadlines Looming; what does it mean for risk? | Stocks, Metals, and Energies | Morning Express

E-mini S&P (December)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 3690.75, down 7.25

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 12,596, up 70.00

Fundamentals: U.S. benchmarks are again on their backfoot ahead of the open. This time as enthusiasm fades due to Senate Majority Leader McConnell refusing to support what is characterized as the $908 billion Bipartisan coronavirus relief package. Instead, McConnell is pushing his skinnier $500 billion plus deal that lacks support to state and local governments, hospitals, airlines and unemployment benefits among other things. Developments in Washington will certainly play an integral role in today’s tape as the December 11th budget deadline looms. Additionally, the continued surge in Covid-19 cases across the U.S. as we head into the dead of winter is weighing on sentiment. However, with the vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech, the U.K. became the first western county to begin mass inoculations.

On today’s economic calendar, German ZEW Economic Sentiment was better than expected, whereas Eurozone GDP data was essentially in line. It is a rather quiet start to the week from the U.S., Nonfarm Productivity marginally missed, and Unit Labor Costs were better. There is a 3-year Note auction at noon CT that kicks off a deluge of supply and tonight we look to CPI and PPI from China. The U.S. Dollar is paramount to the risk-landscape and Thursday week we look to an ECB policy meeting and U.S. CPI data, all the while Brexit negotiations remain in the background.

Technicals: The S&P traded to an overnight low of 3664.25. Thursday’s settlement was 3664.50 and not only was there an intraday gap here but the reopen for Friday’s electronic session Thursday evening only traded to a low of 3665.50. We have major three-star support at 3662-3664.50 and this has held perfectly heading into the opening bell. We imagine a continued hold through the morning again paves the way for the bulls. Marginal weakness in the NQ has also done absolutely nothing wrong and major three-star support at 12,450-12,462 has yet to be pinged. Our momentum indicators come in at .... Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.

Crude Oil (January)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 45.76, down 0.50

Fundamentals: Crude Oil has slipped back below Thursday’s settlement due to perceived deadlock in Washington ahead of the December 11th budget deadline, see the S&P section. The U.S. Dollar was a catalyst for commodities and a risk-on move last week. Although the Dollar has not gained ground this week, it has stopped going lower and this reduces such a tailwind. Further reducing last week’s enthusiasm is a continued surge in Covid-19 cases. However, inoculations in the U.K. are working to offset negative headline sentiment. The private API survey is due after the bell and early estimates point to a small 1.5 mb draw of Crude and builds of 2.9 mb in Gasoline and 1.2 mb in Distillates.

Technicals: Although price action has trekked below yesterday’s 45.36, it is still battling very well at major three-star support at 44.97-45.30. If this level holds through the morning, we expect a recovery into settlement once again. Our momentum indicator comes in at 45.65 and aligns with settlement at 45.76 to bring a point of balance that defines such a recovery on the session. Still, a close below 44.97-45.30 could easily pave the way down to ... Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.

Gold (February)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 1866, up 26.0

Fundamentals: Yesterday was the day we have been hoping for but planning to not see for two more week as we have been pointing to the seasonally bullish turn to begin in the second half of December. In order to prepare for such, Bill Baruch spoke of a buy recommendation at 1825 last week on CNBC’s Futures Outlook with an upside target of 1925. One component to point out is that the U.S. Dollar did not extend losses yesterday and has not either today, yet, Gold still rebounded terrifically and is extending gains into this morning. Also in the balance are stimulus hopes in Washington as a budget deadline looms for December 11th. Gold is planning on added stimulus and this will be critical to a sustained move to 1925.

Technicals: Gold surged through our rare major four-star support at 1843-1854 and settled well above at 1866; it can now begin the much awaited repair. We are more Bullish in Bias over the intermediate and longer-term due to this move as it affirms our projections, however, if you did not catch this rip we advise against chasing such a move. For this reason, as Gold is testing into major three-star resistance at ... Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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