DX weekly, false breakout and now breakdown
Silver weekly, resistance and outside bullish potential
- Federal Reserve left rates and policy unchanged.
- Fed takeaways:
Unanimously voiced the economy has strengthened,
Covid variants pose a risk to the recovery, forcing coined patience
Still, taper is nearing
Inflation is higher than their goals
Further progress needed on jobs; great next week report will create tightening pressures
- Progress in Washington supporting risk-assets
Senate voted to work on $550 billion Infrastructure Bill, could vote to pass next week
Democrats bring a light at the end of the tunnel on budget
- Chinese government proactively soothes investment banks and global investors; Hang Seng closed 6.3% from the low on the week
- Facebook -3% after beating but cautioning with guidance.
- PayPal -5% after missing on revenues.
- Earnings deluge continues, Amazon after the bell
- Robinhood IPOs, interestingly priced at low end of range and opens it to retail customers. Still, valued higher than competitors. Smoke and mirrors?
- First look at Q2 GDP whiffed at 6.5% versus 8.5%
- Jobless Claims higher than expected at 400,000
- Dreaded 7-year auction at noon CT. Massive supply coming in August.
- U.S Dollar Index failed breakout at 93.00 and is now breaking down from a flag pattern
S&P (September) / NQ (Sept)
- Strength on heels of Washington and China
- S&P, NQ, Dow, all coiling at record highs; next move is coming. Momentum and direction has clearly been higher, but approach resolution cautiously.
- NQ, trend line from May low aligns with Tuesday’s low at major three-star support 14,750-14,790. Added back stop support at 14,692-14,722. Break below here needed for health correction.
- S&P line in the sand 4355.75-4359.50. Buyers have defended weakness in front of here.
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4393.75, down 0.75
Resistance: 4403-4405**, 4414.25-4416.75**, 4421-4429**, 4446***
Support: 4377-4380**, 4364.75-4367.25**, 4355.75-4359.50***, 4341.50-4345**
NQ, yeterday’s close: Settled at 15,011.50, up 63.75
Resistance: 15,040**, 15,098-15,134***, 15,206**, 15,271***, 15,336**, 15,547-15,593****
Support: 14,850-14,871***, 14,750-14,790***, 14,692-14,722***
Crude Oil (September)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 72.39, up 0.74
- EIA data headline supportive, but in line with API Tuesday.
- Refinery Utilization and Net Imports down WoW; aides draw in Gasoline
- Traded out above big major three-star resistance at 72.64 overnight; level aligns July 14th gap and trend line from highs, remains critical on weekly close.
- Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 73.46**, 74.69-74.90***
Support: 72.39-72.44**, 71.65-71.90**, 70.90-71.08**, 70-30-70.56***, 69.60-69.86***
Gold (December) / Silver (Sept)
- Gold’s hold of 1793-1796 floor through Fed was very bullish, still work to do at major three-star resistance at 1828-1835, do not chase if not already in.
- Momentum indicator rising and will catch up with overnight floor at 1818.5; must hold to keep rally charged
- Yesterday gap settlement at 1804.6; break below is failure
- Silver faces rare major four-star resistance at 25.74-25.85; aligns trend line from June 11th, gap close July 16th, and last week’s high.
- A move above last week’s high is an outside bullish reversal and could bring tailwinds to test $27
- Dollar Index breakdown and GDP miss supportive
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1804.6, up 0.6
Resistance: 1834.5-1839***, 1854.6-1858.3***
Support: 1818.5**, 1810.9**, 1804.6***, 1793-1796***
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 24.877, up 0.228
Resistance: 25.74-25.85****, 26.20**, 26.55-26.72***, 27.24***
Support: 25.15**, 24.99-25.05**, 24.88***, 24.65***
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