Fed Aftermath and the Dollar | Morning Express


DX weekly, false breakout and now breakdown


Silver weekly, resistance and outside bullish potential


- Federal Reserve left rates and policy unchanged.


- Fed takeaways:

  • Unanimously voiced the economy has strengthened,

  • Covid variants pose a risk to the recovery, forcing coined patience

  • Still, taper is nearing

  • Inflation is higher than their goals

  • Further progress needed on jobs; great next week report will create tightening pressures

- Progress in Washington supporting risk-assets

  • Senate voted to work on $550 billion Infrastructure Bill, could vote to pass next week

  • Democrats bring a light at the end of the tunnel on budget

- Chinese government proactively soothes investment banks and global investors; Hang Seng closed 6.3% from the low on the week


- Facebook -3% after beating but cautioning with guidance.


- PayPal -5% after missing on revenues.


- Earnings deluge continues, Amazon after the bell


- Robinhood IPOs, interestingly priced at low end of range and opens it to retail customers. Still, valued higher than competitors. Smoke and mirrors?


- First look at Q2 GDP whiffed at 6.5% versus 8.5%


- Jobless Claims higher than expected at 400,000


- Dreaded 7-year auction at noon CT. Massive supply coming in August.


- U.S Dollar Index failed breakout at 93.00 and is now breaking down from a flag pattern


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S&P (September) / NQ (Sept)


- Strength on heels of Washington and China


- S&P, NQ, Dow, all coiling at record highs; next move is coming. Momentum and direction has clearly been higher, but approach resolution cautiously.


- NQ, trend line from May low aligns with Tuesday’s low at major three-star support 14,750-14,790. Added back stop support at 14,692-14,722. Break below here needed for health correction.


- S&P line in the sand 4355.75-4359.50. Buyers have defended weakness in front of here.


Bias: Neutral/Bullish

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4393.75, down 0.75


Resistance: 4403-4405**, 4414.25-4416.75**, 4421-4429**, 4446***


Pivot: 4394


Support: 4377-4380**, 4364.75-4367.25**, 4355.75-4359.50***, 4341.50-4345**

NQ, yeterday’s close: Settled at 15,011.50, up 63.75


Resistance: 15,040**, 15,098-15,134***, 15,206**, 15,271***, 15,336**, 15,547-15,593****


Pivot: 14,950-14,990


Support: 14,850-14,871***, 14,750-14,790***, 14,692-14,722***


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Crude Oil (September)


Yesterday’s close: Settled at 72.39, up 0.74


- EIA data headline supportive, but in line with API Tuesday.


- Refinery Utilization and Net Imports down WoW; aides draw in Gasoline


- Traded out above big major three-star resistance at 72.64 overnight; level aligns July 14th gap and trend line from highs, remains critical on weekly close.


- Bias: Neutral


Resistance: 73.46**, 74.69-74.90***


Pivot: 72.64***


Support: 72.39-72.44**, 71.65-71.90**, 70.90-71.08**, 70-30-70.56***, 69.60-69.86***

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Gold (December) / Silver (Sept)


- Gold’s hold of 1793-1796 floor through Fed was very bullish, still work to do at major three-star resistance at 1828-1835, do not chase if not already in.


- Momentum indicator rising and will catch up with overnight floor at 1818.5; must hold to keep rally charged


- Yesterday gap settlement at 1804.6; break below is failure


- Silver faces rare major four-star resistance at 25.74-25.85; aligns trend line from June 11th, gap close July 16th, and last week’s high.


- A move above last week’s high is an outside bullish reversal and could bring tailwinds to test $27


- Dollar Index breakdown and GDP miss supportive


Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1804.6, up 0.6


Resistance: 1834.5-1839***, 1854.6-1858.3***


Support: 1818.5**, 1810.9**, 1804.6***, 1793-1796***

Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 24.877, up 0.228


Resistance: 25.74-25.85****, 26.20**, 26.55-26.72***, 27.24***


Pivot 25.55


Support: 25.15**, 24.99-25.05**, 24.88***, 24.65***



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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.


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