• Oliver Sloup

Grain & Cotton Express

#Corn, #Soybeans, #Wheat, #Cotton




Corn (March)

Fundamentals: March corn futures got taken to the woodshed yesterday as new news dried up and funds hit the sell side, hard. A classic buy the rumor, sell the news reaction. We were anticipating weakness after Phase-1, but not to the extent that we saw yesterday. Next week’s option expiration may be able to provide some support to the market near term, there is a lot of open interest in the 380 puts. Money-flow and technicals will be the driver today as we look to round out this week’s rocky trade.


Technicals: Yesterday’s flush lower took us back to and slightly below our technical support pocket from 377-381. In yesterday’s report we said we would be looking at this pocket to get long exposure back on, for those who reduced against technical resistance on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. We still like buying this pocket on the first test but the bulls really need to see a close back above 380. A failure to achieve this could take us to retest the contract lows from September, 365 ¾. For our complete technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels, sign up for a FREE two-week trial of Blue Line Express.


Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish


Resistance: 390 ½ - 392*** , 407 ¾ - 411 ¾****

Pivot: 377-381

Support: 365 - 365 ¾****


Soybeans (March)

Fundamentals: Soybean futures continued to roll over on a continuation of the “buy the rumor, sell the news” reaction. On top of the dwindling good news, there was some bearish news coming from South America, developing rains that are expected to be friendly to the crop. Yesterday’s export sales came in at 711,500 metric tons, 3% above the 4-week average. Our bias remains Bearish/Neutral, but if you’ve been able to capitalize on this week’s breakdown you may want to capitalize on something ahead of the weekend. See the technical section below for the full breakdown.


Technicals: Our first technical support pocket was tested yesterday and is being tested again in the early morning trade, we’ve defined that as 920-922 ¾. This pocket represents the gap from December 12th, the 200-day moving average, and a key Fibonacci retracement. If the bulls cannot defend this level, we would expect to see another leg lower, taking us close to 912-916, the gap and low from December 12th and 13th. For our complete technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels, sign up for a FREE two-week trial of Blue Line Express.


Bias: Bearish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bearish/Neutral


Resistance: 950 ½ - 955*** , 968 ½ - 970****

Pivot: 933 ¾ - 937 ¼

Support: 920 - 922 ¾*** , 912 - 916****


Chicago Wheat (March)

Fundamentals: Chicago wheat futures saw pressure yesterday, going along with the theme of the broader grain complex. We believe there is little value at these price levels not just from a trading standpoint, but from being competitive in the global market too. With that said, we did see decent export sales yesterday morning, 650, 600 metric tons, 32% above the 4-week average.


Technicals: The market has failed to attract new buyers above the double-top highs from June, if this continues to hold true, we could see a longer-term top being established in the wheat market. The market came within a stones throw of our technical support pocket, 554 ½-557 ¼. If this gives way, we expect to see additional long liquidation. We are moving our bias from Bearish/Neutral to outright Bearish. For our complete technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels, sign up for a FREE two-week trial of Blue Line Express.


Bias: Bearish

Previous Session Bias: Bearish/Neutral


Resistance: 575 - 578 ¾*** , 585**

Support: 554 ½ - 557 ¼*** , 536 ¼ - 538 ¾***


Kansas City Wheat (March)

Technicals: We moved our bias to outright Neutral after the reversal on Wednesday and believe there could be more pressure in store near term for Kansas City wheat. With that said, the longer-term bull trend is still intact. Significant support comes in from 468-471 ¾, we would consider this area to be a buying opportunity on the first test. For our complete technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels, sign up for a FREE two-week trial of Blue Line Express.


Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral


Resistance: 498 - 500** , 509 ¾ - 513***

Pivot: 488 ½ - 490 ½

Support: 468 - 471 ¾**** , 453 ¾ - 458 ¾***


Cotton (March)

Fundamentals: Cotton futures were under pressure the last few sessions but have managed to defend the 70.00 support level. The chart remains favorable to the bull camp, but our bias remains neutral at these levels..


For our complete technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels, sign up for a FREE two-week trial of Blue Line Express.


Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral


Resistance: 72.34 - 72.80****

Pivot: 70 ½ - 71.15

Support: 66.93 - 67.13*** , 62.81 - 63.73***


If you haven't ordered a complimentary 2020 Futures Calendar & Reference Guide, we will have some of these available to send out. This is your go-to resource for Government & Industry Report Dates, Contract Specifications, Futures and Options Expiration Dates. *Available to U.S. residents only.


You can request yours here:  Blue Line Futures 2020 Pocket Calendar

Feel free to contact Oliver Sloup with any questions or comments:

Call or Text: (312) 837-3938

Email: oliver@bluelinefutures.com

Logo_desktop_2x.png

141 W. JACKSON BLVD., SUITE 2845

CHICAGO, IL 60604

INFO@BLUELINEFUTURES.COM

P: (312) 278-0500

F: (888) 370-2221

  • YouTube - White Circle
  • Facebook - White Circle
  • Twitter - White Circle
  • LinkedIn - White Circle

© 2020 by Blue Line Futures, LLC. All rights reserved.

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors.