Grain & Cotton Express
Fundamentals: Corn futures managed to hold relatively well yesterday; all things considered. Grains are finding some spillover support from the outside markets finding their footing. Attention will temporarily shift to this morning’s USDA report, out at 11am CT. Expectations for US ending stocks come in at 1.888 billion bushels.
Technicals: The market managed to form a double bottom (for now) in yesterday’s session and has covered the gap from Sunday night, putting prices smack dab in the middle of the recent range. If the bulls can achieve consecutive closes above 375, we could see an extension back towards the top end of the range, 387-390. This pocket contains the 50 and 100 day moving average along with a key retracement and other previously important price points.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 387-390****, 398 ¾-400***
Support: 365 ¾**, 352 ¼-355**
Fundamentals: Soybean futures got taken to the woodshed yesterday, alongside nearly everything else. Outside markets have firmed in the overnight/early morning trade which has helped offer relief to beans. Attention will briefly turn towards this morning’s USDA report, out at 11am CT. Estimates US ending stocks are estimated to come in near 426 million bushels.
Technicals: Previous support now becomes technical resistance, that comes in from 878-880. If the bulls can achieve consecutive closes back above this pocket, we could see the market fill the Sunday night gap and work back towards the psychologically significant $9.00 handle. A failure to do so keeps the bears in control and leaves the door open for a potential retest of the contract lows from May, 854.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 888 ½-889 ¾***, 908 ¼-912 ½****
Support: 867**, 850-854****
Chicago Wheat (May)
Technicals: Chicago wheat futures managed to rally amidst all the carnage in the broader commodity sector. Technical resistance comes in from 527 ½-530. This pocket represents the 50% retracement (middle of the range) and the 200-day moving average. Consecutive closes above this pocket could start to neutralize the bearish technical landscape.
Previous Session Bias: Bearish/Neutral
Resistance: 523-528 ½***, 540 ½-542 ½****
Support: 505 ¾-510**** 488 ¼-494****
Kansas City Wheat (May)
Technicals: Kansas City wheat tested and held our 4-star support pocket yesterday and managed to close well off those lows yesterday, spilling into some strength in the overnight/early morning trade. The bears remain in full control, but yesterday’s reversal could signal a near term relief rally. If the bulls can achieve consecutive closes above 450, we could see further relief towards 463 ¼-466 ¾. This pocket represents a key retracement, previously important price points, as well as the 100 and 200 day moving average.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 463-466 ¾****, 480-483 ¼****
Support: 430-433 ½****
Technicals: Cotton futures continued to roll over yesterday, along side the outside markets. Though the chart remains bearish over the intermediate term, there will be plenty of opportunities for the bulls and bears, so long as the volatility continues (which we think will).
Resistance: 64.88-65.15****, 69.72-70.20***
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