Fundamentals: Cooler temperatures are getting the nod for a leading catalyst in the firm price action, with many analysts suggesting planting delays. It’s the middle of April….. we are not going to be putting too much weight into that thesis. Though it may be offering support, we do not think it is a reason to rally 25 cents from yesterday’s low. As mentioned in recement commentary, interviews, Tech Talks, etc.; this is momentum and fund flow with a sturdy fundamental backdrop that remains intact.
Technicals: Corn futures stabilized yesterday, narrowly squeaking out a new high close. That momentum has spilled into the overnight/early morning trade as the market approaches resistance from 595-600. This pocket represents the contract highs and the psychologically significant $6.00 handle. The next resistance above that pocket? We could throw some guesses out there based on Fibonacci extensions and continuous charts, but that would be as accurate as throwing darts, blindfolded. As mentioned, a million times before, we look at charts to see the previous interaction between buyers and sellers, and at new contract highs that is not there.
Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Support: 559-564 ¼****, 550**
Fundamentals: May soybean futures have recovered some ground in the early morning trade, but there has been little new news to give the Bulls or the Bears a lot of conviction at these current levels. NOPA crush will be out tomorrow, expectations are for 1798.179 million bushels.
Technicals: The market is retracing the breakdown point from Monday, which is now our pivot pocket. As mentioned in yesterday’s commentary and Tech Talk, that pivot pocket represents previous support which is now the pocket that the Bulls want to get out above. The Bulls MUST achieve consecutive closes above this pocket to repair the technical damage done on Monday. If the Bulls can achieve this, we could see futures march towards the top end of the range, 1434 ½-1426 ½. May option expiration is next Friday, so we would not be surprised to see the market chop around until then.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1434 ½-1436 ½***, 1460*
Support: 1364 ¼-1364 ¾**
Chicago Wheat (May)
Technicals: May wheat futures chopped around yesterday, trading within the previous days range, an “inside day”. This does little to change the technical support and resistance levels but favors the Bull camp in the sense that the pivot pocket was defended. We have wadded into Bullish territory with our bias, a break and close back below our pivot would probably turn the tide and give the advantage back to the Bear camp.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 644 ½-649 ½***, 657 ¾-662 ¾**
Pivot: 626-631 ½
Support: 596 ½-600**, 569-572 ¾*
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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.