Fundamentals: The USDA announced two more flash sales of new crop corn yesterday; one to Mexico for 128,000 metric tons and the other to China for 1,700,000 metric tons. This has helped offer some relief to the “oversold” market. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed that the U.S. corn crop is 80% planted, 4% behind expectations, but well ahead of the average pace, 68%. 41% of the crop is emerged. Yesterday’s weekly export inspections came in at 1,892,000 metric tons, within the range of estimates.
Technicals: July corn futures have been trading as much as 33 cents off yesterday’s lows as the market attempts to catch its breath following last week’s sharp selloff. Significant resistance comes in from 684-691. As mentioned in yesterday’s interview with RFD-TV, a failure here could start to form a bearish head and shoulders pattern.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 684-691***, 703 ¼**, 735 ¼**
Support: 629 ½-633***, 619 ½**
Fundamentals: Yesterday’s weekly crop progress report showed the U.S. soybean crop is 61% planted, 1% ahead of expectations and 24% ahead of the historical average. 20% of the crop is emerged, 8% ahead of the historical average. Yesterday’s NOPA crush report came in at 160.31 million bushels, below the average analyst estimate of 168.74 million bushels and the second lowest volume in 19 months. Yesterday’s weekly export inspections came in at 309,000 metric tons, above the top end of estimates.
Technicals: July soybean futures are up 13 cents in the early morning trade, but it looks like a blip on the daily chart, due to the wide trading ranges we have seen over the last few weeks. 1600 will be the psychologically significant landmark and could act as a magnet with June options expiration this week. Significant support remains from 1574 ¾-1577 ¾. A break and close below this pocket could accelerate the selling pressure and take us into the mid-to-low 1500’s.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1645-1650**, 1667 ½**
Support: 1574 ¾-1577 ¾**, 1535 ¾-1540 ½***
Chicago Wheat (July)
Technicals: Chicago wheat futures were under pressure early on but managed to claw back some losses to finish “less in the red”. This morning, wheat is a beneficiary of higher corn and beans, but the market feels heavy if it were left on its own. June options expiration is this week and may be able to help keep the market in check in the near term. But if the Bulls are unable to reclaim previous support from 711 ½-717, we could see the Bears pounce.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 711 ½-717***, 732-735**
Pivot: 700-701 ¾**
Support: 690 ¾-692**, 674 ¼-680***
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Blue Line Futures
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.