Grain Express

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Corn (July)

Fundamentals: Beneficial rains over the weekend and a friendly 1-2 week forecast for much of the Midwest had spurred some profit taking in the Sunday night trade, which has bled into early morning weakness. Friday’s Commitments of Traders report was another headscratcher, showing funds reduced their position for the third consecutive week and little to no change in the commercial/producer short position, which throws out short covering. Perhaps family offices are getting long, but it seems odd that they would have the ability to move the market as much as we have seen, but maybe that is impart due to the lack of a natural seller in the market. Traders are anxiously awaiting Wednesday’s USDA report, we will have estimates compiled and out later today.

Technicals: Take the technicals with an extra-large grain of salt in this environment. With the rise we have seen, we could see a 40-cent pullback and keep the uptrend intact. With the potential for extreme volatility, it is important to be prudent in risk management and a lot of that revolves around position sizing. If you typically trade “X” lots, you should consider scaling that back a bit.

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 735 ¼*

Pivot: 698-701 ½

Support: 673 ¼-676***, 652-657***

Soybeans (July)

Fundamentals: Soybeans gaped lower Sunday night, but are trying to claw back those losses in the early morning trade. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds reduced a net 5,876 contracts, trimming their net long position back to 162,975 contracts (178,114 longs/15,139 shorts). Traders are anxiously awaiting Wednesday’s USDA report, we will have estimates compiled and out later today.

Technicals: The market came within a stone’s throw from the psychologically significant $16.00 handle on Friday. Prices are about 10 cents off Friday’s high and 12 cents off the overnight lows, as the Bulls and Bears head into the “floor open” in a dead heat. Support was tested overnight; we have had that defined as 1574 ¾-1577 ¾. A break and close below here could spur additional long liquidation, until then, the Bulls have a slight advantage on the longer-term technical outlook.

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 1600

Pivot: 1574 ¾-1577 ¾

Support: 1535 ¾-1540 ½***, 1515 ½-1518**

Chicago Wheat (July)

Techncials: Chicago wheat futures came close to posting new contract highs on Friday but fell just shy. Weakness in the overnight and early morning trade has come on the back of broad based weakness in grains. Our pivot pocket remains intact from last week, we have had that defined as 746-753 ½. If the Bulls are unable to defend this pocket on a closing basis, we could see the selling accelerate, with the next meaningful support coming in 732-735.

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 769 ½-775**

Pivot: 746-753 ½**,

Support: 732-735***, 711 ½-717***, 700-701 ¾**

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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