There are no flash-sales to report (as of writing this)
Fundamentals: Today is the day, USDA day. We will get meaningful new news (as opposed to forcing headlines in a quiet market). The average yield estimate comes in at 176.9 bushels per acre, this would be up from 176.5 we saw in last month’s report. The average production estimate come in near 15.050 billion bushels, up from 15.019 billion bushels. Yesterday’s crop progress report showed 84% of the U.S. corn crop is harvested. Yesterday’s weekly export inspections came in at 563,163 metric tons, about 140,000 metric tons below last week.
Technicals: Corn futures came within a stone’s throw away from the top end of our support pocket, 548 ½. This support pocket we have laid out goes down to 543 ¾. This pocket represents previously important price points, most notably the breakout from October 27th. This pocket also contains the 50% retracement (middle of the range) from the end of march low to the May 7th contract high. The 100-day moving average is also included in this pocket. Looking at technicals alone, we like.....Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
Bias: Previous Session Bias: Resistance: Support: Soybeans (January) Fundamentals: Soybeans made new 10-month lows yesterday as shorts continued to press and longs threw in the towel, ahead of today’s USDA report. We know the fundamental headwinds have been headwind for the market but believe a lot of bearish news has been baked into the cake over the last three trading sessions (70+ cents worth). The average yield estimate comes in at 51.9 bushels per acre, this would be up from 51.5 we saw in last month’s report. The average production estimate come in near 4.484 billion bushels, up from 4.448 billion bushels. Yesterday’s crop progress report showed 87% of the U.S. crop is harvested. Yesterday’s weekly export inspections report came in at 2,646,892 metric tons, a notch above last week.
Technicals: January soybean futures are over 70 cents off the highs from last week as expectations of a growing crop and shrinking demand have longs heading for the exits. The recent selloff has brought the RSI (relative strength index down near “oversold” territory. As mentioned in the fundamental section, we understand the fundamental headwinds for soybeans, but it seems at this point so does everyone else. Overall.....Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you! Bias: Previous Session Bias: Resistance: Support: Wheat (December) Fundamentals: Chicago wheat futures are firm in the early morning trade as market participants await this morning’s USDA report, out at 11:00 AM CT. Yesterday morning’s export inspections report came in at 231,854 metric tons, about 100,000 metric tons above last week. Yesterday’s crop progress report showed that 91% of the winter wheat crop is planted and 74% emerged. Good/excellent ratings came in at 45%, unchanged from the previous week, but 1% below expectations. The average analyst estimate for US wheat stocks is 580 million bushels, 1 million bushels more than last month.
Technicals: Chicago wheat futures were able to defend technical support in yesterday’s session, we have defined that pocket as 765-768. A break and close below this pocket could.....Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you! Bias: Previous Session Bias: Resistance: Support:
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