Fundamentals Yesterday’s crop progress report showed that 67% of the U.S. corn crop is planted and is 24% emerged, within the range of expectations. Weekly export inspections came in at 1.3mmt, above the top end of expectations. Ending stocks will be the big focus in today’s USDA report, expectations are for 20/21 carryout to come in near 3.389 billion bushels. Keep in mind that everybody and their dog is already expecting a bearish report.
Technicals: Corn futures have stalled out in our resistance pocket over the last two sessions, keeping it intact from 320-325. The market has now retreated towards our pivot pocket, 316-317 ¾. If the Bulls fail to defend this area, we could see new contract lows in a relatively short amount of time. If the Bulls CAN defend the pivot pocket and see a close above resistance, we would expect to see that trigger a short covering rally. Needless to say, the market is at an inflection point here.
Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 320-325***, 330-333****, 343 ¼-344 ¾**
Pivot: 316-317 ¾
Support: 308 ¼-310*** 298 ¾-301 ¼**
Fundamentals: Yesterday’s crop progress report showed the U.S. soybean crop is 38% planted and 7% emerged, within the range of estimates. Weekly export inspections came in at 496tmt, within the range of expectations. There were rumors circulating that China was buying beans again yesterday, that was confirmed by the USDA later in the afternoon, 240,000 metric tons. Market participants will be watching today’s carryout number closely, the average estimate is 430 million bushes for 20/21.
Technicals: The market is lingering near the top end of the range and our 4-star resistance pocket, 857-861 ¼. If the Bulls can chew through and achieve consecutive closes above here, we could see an extension towards the mid-870s. A failure here, likely takes us back to the low end of the recent range, 829-834.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 857-861 ¼****, 871 ¼-875**
Support: 818-821***, 808 ¼***, 791**
Chicago Wheat (July)
Fundamentals: Yesterday’s crop progress report showed spring wheat planting at 42% complete and 16% emerged, slightly behind expectations. Winter wheat conditions came in at 53% good/excellent, below expectations. Weekly export inspections came in at 340,000 metric tons. Expectations for today’s USDA report is carryout to be near 814 million bushels for 20/21.
Techncials: Technical resistance has held well, with the market failing against our 4-star resistance pocket again. That remains intact from 525-529. The market is now threatening the low end of the range, 506 ¼-512 ¼. If you sold resistance, you may want to consider reducing ahead of the report. The chart remains bearish, but these reports and market reaction are generally a coin flip.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 525-529****, 538-540 ½**, 552-554 ¾***, 562-565½****
Support: 506 ¼-512 ¼***, 491 ¾-494 ¼***
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