Fundamentals: Yesterday’s USDA report showed 2019/2020 ending stocks at 2.098 billion bushels, below the average trade estimate. The 2020/2021 ending stocks came in at 3.318 billion bushels, below the average trade estimate. The market rallied off the lows on what was primarily short covering from funds, who as of Friday’s Commitment of Traders report were holding a net short position near 190,000 contracts. That is very aggressive for this time of year, regardless of how crummy the fundamental landscape is.
Technicals: Corn futures tested and held our pivot pocket again and made it back to our resistance pocket, 320-325. If the Bulls can chew through this barrier, we could see that spark a bigger short covering rally. The next resistance pocket comes in from 330-333. If you had bought yesterday an want to keep things close to the vest, this would be your target to look at reducing. Though we are optimistic on prices, we understand that the upside mobility is somewhat limited, as it stands. Sometimes people see a Bullish bias and assume we are looking for a repeat of last years rally, that is not the case.
Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 320-325***, 330-333****, 343 ¼-344 ¾**
Pivot: 316-317 ¾
Support: 308 ¼-310*** 298 ¾-301 ¼**
Fundamentals: Yesterday’s USDA report showed new crop ending stocks at 405 million bushels, below the average estimate. Old crop ending stocks came in at 580 million bushels, above the average estimate. The USDA announced a sale of 136,000 metric tons, sold to China for the current marketing year.
Technicals: The market failed to breakout above resistance, but price action remains constructive and the market looks poised for a potential breakout. That resistance pocket comes in from....Contact us for the FULL report!
Chicago Wheat (July)
Fundamentals: Yesterday’s USDA report showed ending stocks at 909 million bushels, well above the average estimate. Old crop ending stocks came in at 978 million bushels, a notch above the average analyst estimate.
Techncals: The market teste an held our technical support pocket again, we have had that defined as 506 ¼-512 ¼. A break and close below here could accelerate the selling and take us down into the low 490’s. Lower lows an lower highs have been the trend for the last two months, but the Bulls have....Contact us for the FULL report!
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