• Oliver Sloup

Grain Express

Corn (July) Fundamentals: Corn futures are softer in the overnight session as broad-based weakness in the grain sector over the last 24 hours has kept buyers at bay. Export sales yesterday morning came in at 884,200 metric tons for 2019/2020, within the range of expectations but down 18% from last week and 10% below the 4-week average.

Technicals: We started the week on solid footing, but the market fell flat against our technical resistance pocket which has led to a disappointing trade in the back half of the week. Prices are now back to the low end of our pivot pocket, 316-317 ¾. The Bulls need to defend this on a closing basis, a failure to do so would neutralize our bias and potentially open the door for a run at the contract lows, 309.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral Previous Session Bias: Bullish

Resistance: 320-325***, 330-333****, 343 ¼-344 ¾** Pivot: 316-317 ¾ Support: 308 ¼-310*** 298 ¾-301 ¼** Soybeans (July) Fundamentals: Soybean futures gave back a lot of hard earne ground yesterday as headlines suggested rising tensions between the U.S. and China. That has carried over into some overnight weakness ahead of a three-day weekend. Yesterday’s weekly export sales came in at 1,205,000 metric tons, above the top end of expectations, 99% higher than last week and 80% above the 4-week average. Primary increases came from China and “Unknown” (likely China). It would be great to see some more flash sales pop up, that would certainly help rejuvenate some of the diminishing optimism.

Technicals: The market has retreated towards the low end of our pivot pocket, as with corn, this is a must hold area. 829-834 has been an inflection point for us, if the Bulls fail to defend this pocket we could see a retest of contract lows. Lower highs were made this week an we have made lower lows this morning, not a good development for the Bull camp.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 857-861 ¼****, 877 ½-882 ¼*** Pivot: 829-834 Support: 818-821***, 808 ¼***, 791** Chicago Wheat (July) Technicals: July wheat futures have been playing right into our technical road-map for the last week, nearly to a T. We held support from 491 ¾-494 ¼ which opened the door for a run into the mid 520’s, a spot yesterday that we said: “If you had reduced shorts or bought technical support, you may consider reducing or putting shorts back on in the mid 520’s as the bear trend is still intact and this is a relief rally for the time being.”.

Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 525-529**** Pivot: 512 ¼-514 ¼ Support: 491 ¾-494 ¼***


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