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Fundamentals: Corn futures are grinding higher this morning as market participants await new news from the USDA. That will come tomorrow in the form of weekly export sales in the morning and crop production/WASDE at 11:00 AM CT. The average analyst yield estimate is expected to show a loss of 3.5 bushels from last month’s report, to 178.3 bushels per acre. This puts production estimates near 14.898 billion bushels. New crop ending stocks are expected to come in near 2.451 billion bushels, a decline of .305 billion bushels from last month’s USDA report.
Technicals: Corn futures are attempting to breakout above the top end of our pivot pocket, 363 ¼. The Bull camp will want to see confirmation when we get more participation on the floor open. We still like leaning on the sell-side against this pocket, but a break and close below would neutralize our bias. If the Bulls were able to achieve a breakout, we could see an extension towards 373-377 ¼. We would not be surprised to see the market linger near our pivot pocket until we get new news from the USDA on Friday.
Previous Session Bias: Bearish
Resistance: 373-377 ¼***
Pivot: 359 ½-363 ¼
Support: 343 ¾-346****, 326-330***
Fundamentals: Soybean futures remain resilient as prices linger near the top end of the range from last October-January. Twelve consecutive sessions is an impressive run, no doubt about it, but the next move will largely be dependent on tomorrow’s data from the USDA, exports in the morning, followed by crop production/WASDE at 11 AM CT. Expectations for yield are near 51.8 bushels per acre, a drop of 1.5 from last month’s report. Production estimates are near 4.295 billion bushels. New crop ending stocks estimates are near 465 million bushels.
Techncials: Soybeans are on their longest winning streak in over a decade bringing the RSI (relative strength index) to 81.86. This is considered “extremely overbought”, that does not mean the top is in, but rather suggests that the upside potential/value is likely limited in the near term. Previous resistance now becomes first support, we see that as 968-970.
Previous Session Bias: Bearish/Neutral
Resistance: 980-982 ¾****, 1000**
Support: 950-952**, 923-925 ¼****
Chicago Wheat (December)
Technicals: December wheat futures managed to defend first support; we have had that defined as 540-542 ½. This pocket represents a key retracement, previously important price points, and the 200-day moving average. A break and close below this pocket could accelerate the selling and take us back towards 526 ½-530. The first resistance today comes in the form of our pivot pocket, which we have defined as 554 ½-557 ½. A close above this pocket would neutralize our bias.
Previous Session Bias: Bearish/Neutral
Resistance: 568 ½**, 577 ½-581 ¼****
Pivot: 554 ½-557 ½
Support: 540-542 ½**, 526 ½-530***, 518**
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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.