• Oliver Sloup

Grain Express

Corn (December)


Fundamentals: December corn futures gave the background for Thursday and Friday as the beginning of harvest starts to trigger some long liquidation. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the U.S. corn crop is 8% harvested, behind expectations but too early to be concerned. For those of you still keeping track of good/excellent conditions, those came in at 61%, this was 1% better than last week and 2% better than expectations. Weekly export inspections came in at 755,000 metric tons, within the range of expectations.


Technicals: Yesterday’s pullback drops the RSI (relative strength index) down to 61.10, below the threshold of what is universally considered “overbought”. Previous resistance now represents support, we see that coming in from 359 ½-363 ¼. This pocket represents previously important price points, a key retracement, and the 200-day moving average. A failure to hold this level would neutralize the bullish chart developments and potentially trigger another wave of long liquidation.


Bias: Bearish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bearish/Neutral


Resistance: 377 ¼-379 ½***, 385-386 ¾****

Support: 359 ½-363 ¼***, 343 ¾-346****

Soybeans (November)


Fundamentals: November soybeans saw their first meaningful pullback since the beginning of the rally, a month, and a half ago. Much of the pressure came on the back of long liquidation as harvest starts to pick up steam. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed U.S. harvest is 6% complete, on pace with the historical average. Good/excellent ratings came in at 63%, unchanged from last week. The USDA did announce another flash-sale yesterday. 132,000 metric tons to China, 132,000 metric tons to Pakistan, and 171,000 metric tons to Unknown. That is roughly 16 million bushels. Export inspections came in at 1,311,000 metric tons, within the range of expectations.


Technicals: Yesterday’s pullback has brought the RSI (relative strength index) down to 73.78, still a reading that suggests we are in “overbought” territory. Our pivot pocket was tested and held in the overnight session; we had defined that in yesterday’s report as 1013 ¾-1018 ¼. A break and close below this pocket could take us back towards 995-1000, a pocket that is technically and psychologically significant.


Bias: Bearish

Previous Session Bias: Bearish


Resistance: 1046 ¾-1050***

Pivot: 1013 ¾-1018 ¼

Support: 995-1000 ¾****, 980-982 ¾***, 950-952**

Chicago Wheat (December)


Fundamentals: Yesterday’s export inspections came in at 470,000 metric tons, towards the low end of expectations. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed winter wheat is 20% planted, on pace with the historical average. Spring wheat is 96% harvested, on pace with historical averages. The US Dollar surged yesterday and is threatening to break out above 94, this could open the door for an extension towards 96. This would likely make it difficult for wheat to hold a meaningful rally.


Technicals: Yesterday’s pullback erased all of Friday’s gains and then some, testing and holding our first technical support pocket. We have defe4ind that as 554 ½-557 ½. A break and close below this pocket could trigger another leg lower and take us back to 530-542 ½. This pocket represents previously important price points, a key retracement, and the 200-day moving average. Just below this pocket is trendline support and the 50-day moving average, at 536.


Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish


Resistance: 577 ½-581 ¼****, 599 ½-601 ¾****

Pivot: 568 ½

Support: 554 ½-557 ½***, 540-542 ½**, 526 ½-530***



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