• Oliver Sloup

Grain Express

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Corn (December)


Fundamentals: Corn futures finished 14 ½ higher than the previous week as funds continue to not only defend but add to their net long position. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net buyers of 11,000 contracts through September 29th, expanding their net long position to 106,820. It is estimated that they bought another 59,000 futures contracts from Wednesday-Friday. Crop Progress will be out after the close which will likely show harvest is on pace with historical averages. The big-ticket item this week will be Friday’s WASDE report, we will have estimates out by mid-week.


Technicals: The market traded up into our 4-star resistance pocket in the back-half of last week, we have defined that as 385-386 ¾. So far, the sellers have defended this resistance pocket, a break and close above this pocket could lead to another “whoosh” higher, the next resistance pocket does not come in until the $4.00 level. The market is treading water in our pivot pocket this morning, we have defined that as 377 ¼-379 ½. If the Bull camp fails to defend this pocket, we could see long liquidation take us back to the breakout point from the most recent USDA report, that comes in from 363 ¼-365 ¾.


Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish


Resistance: 385-386 ¾****, 400-405**, 423-425***

Pivot: 377 ¼-379 ½

Support: 363 ¼-365 ¾***, 343 ¾-346****

Soybeans (November)


Fundamentals: November soybean futures finished 18 ¼ cents higher last week as demand continues to attract buyers, or at least prevent a lasting wave of long liquidation. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net buyers of 18,000 contracts through September 29th, expanding their net long position to 229,04. It is estimated that they bought another 26,500 contracts from Wednesday-Friday, this would put funds at a new all-time record high. Crop Progress will be out after the close which will likely show harvest is on pace with historical averages. The big-ticket item this week will be Friday’s WASDE report, we will have estimates out by mid-week.


Technicals: The market chopped around in the final two sessions of last week as market participants attempt to defend their positions. The market is treading near our pivot pocket 1013 ¾-1018 ¼. If the Bull camp fails to defend this pocket, we could see continued long liquidation take us back to the breakout point from the USDA report, 1003-1005. The Bull camp has the technical advantage until we see consecutive closes below our pivot pocket and first technical support.


Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish


Resistance: 1046 ¾-1050***

Pivot: 1013 ¾-1018 ¼

Support: 1000-1005****, 980-982 ¾***, 964 ¼-866 ¾**

Chicago Wheat (December)


Fundamentals: Chicago wheat futures finished 29 cents higher for the week as the technical landscape and fund appetite for long exposure in grains continue to grow. Market participants will continue to keep a close eye on the weather in Russia, which is expected to remain to try in the coming week(s). Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net long 12,000 contracts through September 29th, it is estimated that funds bought another 21,500 contracts from Wednesday-Friday. This morning’s price action would indicate more fund buying.


Techncials: Chicago wheat futures are making new highs for the move, in the early morning trade. This keeps the trend of higher lows and higher highs intact. If the Bull camp can achieve a conviction close above technical resistance, we could see an extension towards the $6.00 handle. The first support to start the week comes in from 557 ½-561 ¼.


Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral


Resistance: 594-600 ½***

Pivot: 577 ½-581 ¼

Support: 557 ½-561 ¼ ***, 540-542 ½***


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