Fundamentals: Friday’s USDA report showed the national average corn yield at 178.4 bushels per acre, a notch above the average analyst estimate. Harvested acres was lowered which offset the higher yield and ultimately led to a small decline in production, 14.722 billion bushels. US ending stocks came in at 2.167 billion bushels, within the range of expectations. For the week ending October 9th, corn futures were up 15 ¼ cents, marking new highs for the move and inching closer to the technically and psychologically significant $4.00 level. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds bought a net 27,600 contracts, expanding their net long position to 134,466 contracts. Commitment of Trader data is through Tuesday, it is estimated that funds added another 50,000 net long positions in the back half of the week. With the USDA report behind us and harvest wrapping up attention will start to shift towards South America.
Technicals: The trend of higher lows and higher highs continues as the market marches toward our psychologically and technically significant resistance pocket, 400-405. This pocket represents the top end of the range in January. As mentioned in last week’s report, we would not be surprised to see the market start to consolidate against this resistance pocket. The RSI is currently at 74.67, this is technically “overbought” but is still shy of the highs we saw last month.....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels emailed each morning.
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Fundamentals: Friday’s USDA report showed the national average soybean yield at 51.9 bushels per acre, just above the average analyst estimate of 51.6. As with corn, harvested acres dropped which ultimately led to a small decline in overall production, 4.268 billion bushels. US ending stocks continues to be the attention grabber, that came in at .290 billion bushels, well below the average analyst estimate of .369. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed the funds net long 238,394 contracts through October 6th, an increase of just 9,400 net contracts from the previous week, well below what analysts were expecting to see. With the USDA report behind us and harvest wrapping up attention will start to shift towards South America.
Technicals: November soybeans traded higher on Friday’s USDA report, but finished the day right where we were trading pre-report. Perhaps this is an indication that the recent string of bullish news has been mostly priced into the market. The market is near uncharted territory, which makes it difficult to find a meaningful resistance pocket. We like to look at technicals as a roadmap of previous interactions between buyers and sellers, with prices at new highs we do not have that “road-map”.....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels emailed each morning.
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Chicago Wheat (December)
Technicals: December Chicago wheat futures were extremely volatile in the back-half of last week’s trade and we would not be surprised to see that continue this week. Thursday and Friday represented bearish reversals; the Bear camp wants to see that momentum continue into today’s session. From the risk/reward side of things we like the sell side, but the Bears need to defend.....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels emailed each morning.
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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.