• Oliver Sloup

Grain Express

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Corn (December)


Fundamentals: Corn futures are firming in the overnight/early morning trade, some of which come on the back of spillover momentum from a wheat market that is trading at multi-year highs. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds are long 170,869 contracts, through October 13th. This afternoon’s Crop Progress report is expected to show US harvest at 51-52% complete, well ahead of the 5-year average, 43%.


Technicals: The market had a bearish reversal on Friday, but the market has brushed that off and is continuing the 2+ month rally. As mentioned in our Tech Talk that we sent out over the weekend, $4.00 will be a psychological inflection point going forward. The Bulls have a clear advantage of the technical landscape, but a break and close below $4.00 could start to spur some long liquidation/profit-taking from recent buyers. There is some resistance near.....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels emailed each morning.


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Soybeans (November)


Fundamentals: Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed the funds holding a net long position of 226,444 contracts, through October 13th. This afternoon’s Crop Progress report is expected to show soybean harvest in the states at 74-75% complete, well ahead of the 5-year average pace, 58%


Technicals: Soybeans failed to find and hold momentum last Friday, which for the time being marks lower highs. If Friday’s highs continue to be defended, there may be a good risk/reward setup here for the sell-side. If there is a potential top in the market, does that mean we are going straight back down? Not necessarily, we think the volatility will stick around and offer a lot of opportunities for participants on both sides of the card, buy/sell.....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels emailed each morning.


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Chicago Wheat (December)


Fundamentals: Dry weather overseas, coupled with a broad-based appetite from funds to be long grain futures keeps wheat price marching higher, reaching multi-year highs in the early morning trade.


Techncials: Front-month wheat futures are at their highest price since 2014, taking the RSI to levels not seen since the summer of 2018, 73.63. As mentioned in previous reports, finding technical resistance when prices are in uncharted territory becomes a bit of a fool’s errand. Though we do like playing wheat to the short side, we recognize the risk of continued strength. John Maynard Keynes said it best, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”.....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels emailed each morning.

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