• Oliver Sloup

Grain Express

Corn (December)


Fundamentals: December corn futures managed to finish yesterday’s session in positive territory but underperformed the broader risk-on sentiment in some of the other markets like soybeans, energies, and indices. The lack of enthusiasm on the buy-side could be due to the already ultra-long funds, coupled with a USDA report this morning. The average estimate for yield is 177.7, down from 178.4 in October. The average production estimate comes in at 14.659, down from 14.722 in October. The estimated carryout comes in at 2.033, down from 2.167 in October. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed harvest is 91% complete. Yesterday’s export inspections report came in at 690,000 metric tons, towards the low end of estimates.


Technicals: Corn futures are lingering in the middle of our pivot pocket; we have defined that as 409-411 ¼. As mentioned in previous reports, this is a bit of an inflection point for the market, a perfect spot to be at ahead of a coin-flip report. This pocket represents previous highs, a breakout point, and a breakdown point, i.e., an inflection point in the past. The Bulls need to defend this to keep the momentum in their favor.


Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral


Resistance: 415 ¼-417 ½**, 423-425***

Pivot: 409-411 ¼

Support: 400-405***, 385-386 ¾***, 373**

Soybeans (January)


Fundamentals: January soybean futures finished higher yet again, closing at new all-time highs. Weather in South America continues to be a concern in the very near term. Also, on the radar is today’s USDA report, out at 11:00 AM CT. The average estimate for yield is 51.6, down from 51.9 in October. The average production estimate comes in at 4.251, down from 4.268 in October. The estimated carryout comes in at .235, down from .290 in October. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed harvest is 92% complete. Yesterday’s export inspections report came in at 2,496,000 metric tons, above the top end of estimates.


Technicals: With the market in uncharted territory once again, finding technical resistance becomes a fool’s errand. $11.00 will be psychologically significant support going forward. The RSI is at 71.54, technically in “overbought” territory.


Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral


Resistance:

Support: 1100**, 1085 ¼-1087 ¾**, 1075 ¾-1076 ¼****

Chicago Wheat (December)


Fundamentals: Today’s USDA report is expected to show wheat carryout at .881 billion bushels, down from .883 in October. World wheat carryout is estimated to be near 319.78 mmt, down from 321.45 in October. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed winter wheat is 93% planted, 79% emerged, with a good/excellent rating of 45%, 9% below last year. A big drop-off in ratings comes from Kansas where 31% is G/E, which compares to 51% last year. Yesterday’s export inspections report came in at 304,000 metric tons, within the range of expectations.


Technicals: Wheat futures continue to linger near our pivot pocket, 599-603 ½. A break and close below here could accelerate the selling and take us down near 580. Lower highs were posted last week, lower lows would be made below 591.


Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 626 ¼**, 636 ¾-640**

Pivot: 599-603 ½

Support: 591**, 578 ¼-584 ¼***


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