Watch us on RFD-TV, today at 12:45 PM CT!
Fundamentals: Strong demand has been the foundation of the strength we’ve seen in prices over the last few months and we saw that again yesterday morning. Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 140,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2020/2021 marketing year. This morning’s export sales report showed net sales of 1,088,600 MT for 2020/2021 were up 11 percent from the previous week, but down 43 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Technicals: December corn futures made new highs yesterday, but it lacked conviction which led to a poor close. The weak close has led to some pressure in the overnight and early morning session. As mentioned in our Tech Talk earlier in the week, we like leaning on the sell-side above 420. First support comes in from 416 ½-417 ½, this pocket represents the gap from the Monday evening open. If the Bulls fail to defend this pocket, we would expect to see another wave of long liquidation take us back towards trendline support, 410(ish).
Previous Session Bias: Bearish/Neutral
Resistance: 422 ¼-428**
Pivot: 416 ½-417 ½
Support: 409-411 ¼***, 400-403 ¾***
Fundamentals: Weather concerns in South America coupled with pure momentum accelerated prices higher yesterday morning. Though the fundamentals and technicals remain supportive, you must acknowledge the amount of risk on either side of the market on any given day. Soybeans could easily be up or down 20 cents in a day, on money flow, with now clear fundamental change. This morning’s export sales report showed net sales of 1,387,700 MT for 2020/2021--a marketing-year low--were down 6 percent from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Technicals: January soybeans accelerated higher yesterday morning, but were in retreat mode into the close, setting up for weakness in the overnight and early morning session. With the market in uncharted territory, finding meaningful technical resistance becomes a fool’s errand. There has been a lot of analysts saying the next stop is 1208 ½, this represents the highs from June 10th, 2016. In many other commodities like gold, oil, etc, the continuous chart holds more credibility, but the conditions for price changes in the grain markets are drastically different. So, we take the continuous chart with a grain of salt, especially when going back 4-years.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Support: 1162 ¼***, 1140-1145**
Chicago Wheat (December)
Fundamentals: This morning’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of 192,400 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021--a marketing-year low--were down 36 percent from the previous week and 62 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Technicals: Chicago wheat futures attempted to get back above our pivot-pocket/resistance again yesterday, 599-603 ½, but failed. Keeping our Bearish bias in place today. We want to see a break below 592 ½ to get the ball rolling downhill, for a potential retest of 578 ¼-584 ¼. A close above yesterday’s highs would neutralize our near-term bias.
Previous Session Bias: Bearish
Resistance: 626 ¼**, 636 ¾-640**
Pivot: 599-603 ½
Support: 592 ½**, 578 ¼-584 ¼***, 555-561 ¼****
Reach out to learn more about our new Ag Trade Alerts program and how we are positioning for hedgers and speculators.
Call/Text/Email, Oliver with any questions.
Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com and 312-837-3938
Sign up for your FREE trial of our daily Grain & Livestock Market Analysis!
Follow us on our social media sites to stay on the pulse of our latest research and commentary!
Twitter - twitter.com/bluelinefutures
Facebook - facebook.com/BlueLineFutures
StockTwits - stocktwits.com/BlueLineFutures
Latest blog posts - bluelinefutures.com/blog
Blue Line Futures 312-278-0500
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.