-Thursday’s WASDE report will be released at 11am CT, we will have estimates out in tomorrow’s report.
-Friday is Good Friday and markets will be closed.
Fundamentals: May corn futures made new contract lows yesterday as the fundamental headwinds continue to weigh heavy on the market. Weekly export inspections came in at 1,271,000 metric tons, above the top end of expectations.
Technicals: Our bias remains Neutral, meaning we could make the argument to be a buyer or a seller. The chart has been very bearish for the last month, but we are approaching historical support levels in an oversold market and don’t think this is a level where you want to be selling. On top of that, the overall sentiment remains as bearish as ever and when everyone leans on one side of the ship, that makes us nervous. We continue to believe we could see a tradable relief rally, but it will likely be short lived and sold into. Previous support from 330-332 is now our pivot point. Consecutive closes above here could spark a wave of short covering and would put our near term bias in the Bullish camp (very near term).
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 343 ¼-344 ¾**, 354-356 ¾***
Support: 325**, 313 ¾-315 ¼***
Fundamentals: Weekly export inspections came in at 298,000 metric tons, below the low end of estimates.
Technicals: May soybean futures tripped stops below Friday’s lows but failed to accelerate lower, drifting back up and closing near our pivot pocket, 854-858 ¾. We would consider buying this area of support but need to see it hold to feel comfortable holding overnight. IF the bulls can defend this pocket, there is room to work back into the mid 880’s. A failure to defend this pocket and yesterday’s lows leaves the door open for a potential retest of contract lows at 821.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 871 ¼-875**, 888 ½-889 ¾***
Pivot: 854-858 ¾
Support: 842-845 ¼***, 820-821**
Chicago Wheat (May)
Fundamentals: Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed winter wheat conditions at 62% Good/Excellent, well above the expectations of 56% G/E. Weekly export inspections came in at 320,000 metric tons.
Technicals: May wheat futures made a run at our 4-star technical resistance pocket, 564-568 ½ but couldn’t find enough buyers to stage a breakout. The market has retreated this morning, trading close to our 4-star support pocket 540 ½-542 ½. The support and resistance pockets are very significant, and a breakout or breakdown will set the tone for the intermediate term. If the bulls can chew through resistance, we could see a run at the psychologically significant $6.00 handle, in short order. IF support gives way, we would expect to see a drop into the mid 520’s, the breakout point from March 19th along with the 200 day moving average and 50% retracement.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 564-568 ½****, 590 ¾***, 600-603 ¼**
Support: 540 ½-542 ½****, 525-258 ¼****
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