• Oliver Sloup

Grain Express

USDA report out at 11:00 AM CT Watch us on RFD-TV, today at 12:45 PM CT! Click this link to watch yesterday's Tech Talk: Wheat, Cotton, and Lean Hogs Corn (March)

Fundamentals: This morning’s export sales report showed net sales of 1,362,200 MT for 2020/2021 were down 1 percent from the previous week, but up 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. Today’s USDA report is expected to show US ending stocks near 1.691 billion bushels, down from the 1.702 in the previous report.

Technicals: March corn futures worked higher yesterday and are seeing some follow-through in the overnight and early morning trade. As always, we are taking the overnight trade with a grain of salt, due to the low volume trade. We believe that volume confirms price, so the Bulls will want to see this strength hold through the floor open. Our first resistance pocket remains intact from 429-430 ½. A close above this pocket would offset the two-week trend of lower highs and favor the upside in the near term. Our bias remains Neutral, as we continue to echo our belief that there will be more short-term trading opportunities on both sides of the market than we have seen over the last several months.

Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 429-430 ½**, 435 ¾-439½**** Pivot: 422 ¼ Support: 413 ½-415 ¼****, 396-399 ½*** Soybeans (January) Fundamentals: This morning’s export sales report showed net sales of 569,000 MT for 2020/2021 were up 40 percent from the previous week, but down 42 percent from the prior 4-week average. Today’s USDA report is expected to show US ending stocks near 168 million bushels, down from 190 in last month’s report. World ending stocks are expected to come in near 85.11 million tonnes, down from the 86.52 we saw in November.

Technicals: January soybean futures managed to defend technical support this week, keeping it intact, we have defined this pocket as 1138-1142 ½. The market is now moving north, into our 4-star resistance pocket, 1169-1176. If you had been a buyer on the dip, this is a spot to reduce risk ahead of the uncertainty of today’s report. If you want to be short, this is a pocket that represents good risk/reward. A move and close above this pocket would negate the recent trend of lower highs and put the Bull camp back in control of the technical landscape. Our bias remains Neutral, as we continue to echo our belief that there will be more short-term trading opportunities on both sides of the market than we have seen over the last several months.

Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 1169-1176****, 1200-1208 ½** Pivot: 1152-1154 ¾ Support: 1138-1142 ½**, 1114 ¼-1120 ¼**** Chicago Wheat (March)

Fundamentals: This morning’s export sales report showed net sales of 616,500 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were up 38 percent from the previous week and 42 percent from the prior 4-week average. Today’s USDA report is expected to show US ending stocks at 874 million bushels, down from 877 we saw in November.

Technicals: Wheat futures are springboarding off technical support, a 4-star pocket that we had defined as 563-569 ½. Throughout the week, we have been labeling that pocket as an opportunity for shorts to reduce, and Bulls to buy. We also mentioned, “If, given the opportunity, we would be looking to resell in the mid 580’s.”. We did start nibbling on the sell-side yesterday but were less aggressive than usual due to the uncertainty that comes with a USDA report. The market is blowing through that resistance in the early morning trade, neutralizing our bias, for now.

Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Resistance: 600-602 ½**, 608 ¾-611 ¾**** Pivot: 585 ½-592 ½ Support: 563-569 ½****, 542 ½-545 ¼****


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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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