• Oliver Sloup

Grain Express

Corn (March)


Fundamentals: Corn futures rallied sharply yesterday, continuing the string of consecutive positive closes, 12, the longest streak in 33 years. Much of the strength comes from spillover in the soybean market. The chatter around a potential 1.2 billion bushel carryout is picking up, which is expected to come with the price action we’ve seen.


Technicals: So long as we continue to make new contract highs, we will likely sound like broken record. The market is in uncharted territory, coupled with an abbreviated holiday trading week makes finding meaningful resistance a fool’s errand. There are continuous charts that some use, but we do not put much weight into those for agricultural commodities (continuous charts are great for some futures contracts like gold, silver, S&P). 12 straight positive closes in the longest winning streak in 33 years, which has brought the RSI is to 80.55, the most overbought since…..2012? The path of least resistance has........Click this link to read the FULL report and receive our daily commentary

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Soybeans (March)


Fundamentals: Soybeans were just two ticks away from the “teens”. Last night we got news from Argentina’s CIARA soy crushing chamber stating that the Union came to an agreement to end the three-week strike. The agreement raises salaries 25% from January to August, increases for the rest of the year will be determined by the inflation rate, which largely started the strike. Inflation in Argentina is the real issue, and the salaries did not compensate for that. So why aren’t futures down more? SOMU, the union of Argentine Marine Workers confirmed that it called for a strike, demanding increase wages. This could affect tugboats that help ships navigate around the ports. This will continue to be monitored, along with money flow and the reaction of funds. Ending stocks are still tight, which is certainly the foundation of this bull market. As mentioned previously, the market is searching for prices that start to ration demand.


Technicals: We thought that Monday’s 33 ½ cent trading range was a rollercoaster, but Tuesday said “hold my beer”. Futures traded in a 53 ¼ cent range yesterday, posting new contract highs and coming within a couple ticks of “beans in the teens”. Finding meaningful technical resistance in uncharted territory is more or less a fool’s errand. There are technical studies that use extensions and there are continuous charts, to try and find resistance, but they will not be as significant as levels would be where there was actual interaction between buyers and sellers. Our near-term bias remains........Click this link to read the FULL report and receive our daily commentary

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Chicago Wheat (March)


Techncials: Wheat’s attempt to keep up with corn and soybeans has been lackluster. Will it play catch-up, or is it just that overpriced? We tend to think it is just that over-priced, but these market conditions are not normal and the technicals have become more friendly over the last month which could be enough to spur money flow, which has been aggressive in the grain sector over the last few months. We want to be looking for places to........Click this link to read the FULL report and receive our daily commentary

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