• Oliver Sloup

Grain Express

Corn (March)


Fundamentals: March corn futures snapped their historic winning streak yesterday, finish the session fractionally lower. The deferred contracts still have that streak intact. Yesterday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds added a net 66 thousand contracts through December 29th, extending their net long position to 332,045, the largest position since 2012. Yesterday’s weekly export inspections came in at 913,000 metric tons, within the range of expectations. There are some growing concerns around ethanol demand, which could take a little wind out of the sail.


Technicals: For a market that rallied for 14 consecutive sessions, we would have expected a bigger pullback on the day that snapped the streak. Yesterday’s price action and volatility was an indication that things may be a little overheated in the near term. The RSI (relative strength index) is at 85.22, historically this is considered “extremely overbought”. Being this overbought does not necessarily mean a top is in, but it is more of a caution flag that says “hey, we went too far too fast, we need a healthy correction or consolidation phase”........Click this link to read the FULL report and receive our daily commentary

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Soybeans (March)


Fundamentals: March soybean futures made new contract highs in the Sunday night session but traded as much as 48 ½ cents off those highs when we saw more participation during the normal trading session. This is why we say, “take the overnight session with a grain of salt”, and that applies whether the overnight is higher or lower. Yesterday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds holding a net long position of 196,487 contracts, an increase of 7,864 contracts. Yesterday’s export inspections report came in at 1,306,000 metric tons, within the range of estimates. Weather (forecasts) in South America is little changed from what we saw yesterday. The foundation of the Bullish case continues to be on the low carryout number that some are estimating could be as low as 75 million bushels.


Technicals: In this type of environment, you have got to take technicals with an extra grain of salt. Yesterday’s wide-ranging price action and volatility triggered a temporarily irrational market via trader psychology. The RSI is at 84.01 this morning, close to unchanged from where we were yesterday morning. As mentioned yesterday, our bias remains........Click this link to read the FULL report and receive our daily commentary

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Chicago Wheat (March)


Fundamentals: Yesterday’s weekly export inspections report came in at 325,000 metric tons, within the range of estimates. Yesterday’s Commitments of Traders report showed funds long roughly 13,000 contracts through December 29th, an increase of about 7,000.


Technicals: The market is making new contract highs this morning, after chopping around in a wide range during the first trading day of the year. Though we think wheat is overpriced, the technicals remain firm and this is not a market we want to step in front of at the moment........Click this link to read the FULL report and receive our daily commentary

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