• Oliver Sloup

Grain Express

Watch us on RFD-TV, today at 12:45 PM CT! Corn (March)

Fundamentals: Corn futures saw another wide-ranging trade yesterday and made a brief appearance above the psychologically significant $5.00 handle. Much of that price action has come on a tailwind from the surge in soybean prices. There are some concerns growing around ethanol demand that may start to put a drag on some of that tailwind. Export sales this morning showed net sales of 748,900 MT for 2020/2021 were down 22 percent from the previous week and 39 percent from the prior 4-week average. Soybean exports were also sharply lower, if we see weakness in that market we would expect to see that spill into weakness in corn prices.

Technicals: March corn futures made new contract highs yesterday, tripping stops above the psychologically significant $5.00 handle. We moved our intermediate-term bias from outright Neutral to Neutral/Bearish aka cautiously pessimistic earlier in the week that is now at Bearish/Neutral. Our pivot pocket was tested and held in the overnight session; we have defined that as 485 ¾-486 ½. A break and close below here could trigger another wave of long liquidation and take us down into the mid 470’s. A break and close above the $5.00 handle would likely Neutralize our bias........Click this link to read the FULL report and receive our daily commentary

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Previous Session Bias:

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Support: Soybeans (March)

Fundamentals: Soybeans continued their march higher yesterday as concerns around tight supplies continue to offer support. This morning’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of 37,000 MT for 2020/2021--a marketing-year low--were down 95 percent from the previous week and 94 percent from the prior 4-week average. Potentially reaching a point that rations demand? TBD, we will look for a trend to develop in this data, not base it on one weekly report. Market participants are anxiously awaiting next week’s USDA report, we will have estimates out in the coming days. Weather in South America is continuing to be monitored closely.

Technicals: Soybeans made new contract highs yesterday, for the 13th consecutive session. The market is roughly 18 cents off those highs this morning, which does not look like much on the chart when looking at the action over the last month. We think there are some shorter-term trading opportunities out there on both sides of the market but would not be getting married to either side. We expect volatility to remain high, so be sure to manage risk, which includes potentially walking back the position size........Click this link to read the FULL report and receive our daily commentary

Bias:

Previous Session Bias:

Resistance:

Pivot:

Support: Chicago Wheat (March)

Technicals: Wheat futures have pulled back to previous resistance and our pivot pocket, 637 ¾-639. A break and close below this pocket could accelerate the selling. We continue to believe wheat is overvalued but have been hesitant to jump in front of this train. We are changing our bias from Neutral to Neutral/Bearish aka cautiously pessimistic, but want to see the weakness persist through today’s session to maintain that bias into the last trading day of the week.

........Click this link to read the FULL report and receive our daily commentary

Bias:

Previous Session Bias:

Resistance:

Pivot:

Support:


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