• Oliver Sloup

Grain Express

Watch us on RFD-TV, today at 9:45 AM CT! Corn (March) Fundamentals: Corn futures rolled out of bed on Friday, testing limit down territory and catching many market participants off guard. Futures were off the highs by as much as 41 cents or 7.6% from the recent highs. As mentioned in our Tech Talk on Friday, you will drive yourself crazy trying to find a fundamental catalyst to explain big moves like this. This was largely technicals, money-flow, and options expiration. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net sellers of 24,097 contracts through January 19th (so, not including Friday’s blood bath), trimming their net long position to 336,087, which would be historically considered, over-extended.

Technicals: The market broke below our pivot pocket on Friday, in our Friday morning commentary we noted: “A break and close below this pocket could spark additional long liquidation from the over-extended funds. The next support pocket we have listed below this pocket is 497-502 ¾, this pocket represents the breakout point from last week’s USDA report.”. Admittedly, we were not looking for the washout to happen all in one day. Our 4-star support that we mentioned in Friday’s Tech Talk was tested and held overnight, we have that defined as 487 ¼-492. We do not mind buying against this support pocket on the first test, but Bulls need to defend it on a closing basis.........Click this link to read the FULL report and receive our daily commentary

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Support: Soybeans (March) Fundamentals: Soybean futures got taken to the woodshed on Friday, coming within a stone’s throw of limit down. There are already rumblings that we could see some export cancellations this week, so do not count that out. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net sellers of 13,045 contracts through January 19th (so, not including Friday’s blood bath), trimming their net long position for the fourth consecutive week, shrinking it to 137,496 contracts.

Technicals: Prices have traded as much as $1.38 ½ cents off the highs from less than two weeks ago. Shorts have been fleeced for weeks and now it is a squeeze on recent buyers who have been blindly buying. Our bias has been Neutral, we understand the sound fundamental backdrop but also understand the downside risk in this environment. First support last week near 1340 gave way and opened the door for a run at our next support pocket, a 4-star support pocket, 1295-1301. This pocket is being tested and has so far held. A break and close below this pocket could trigger another wave of long liquidation. The good news, techncials are recalibrating and will start to come back into play.........Click this link to read the FULL report and receive our daily commentary

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Support: Chicago Wheat (March)

Techncials: Chicago wheat futures were lower in the overnight session, trading as much as 68 ½ cents off the recent highs. The market has found some support from 624-628 ¾. This pocket represents previous resistance, which became support on January 11th. The Bull camp MUST defend this level, a break and close below here could keep the pressure on prices.........Click this link to read the FULL report and receive our daily commentary

Bias:

Previous Session Bias:

Resistance:

Pivot:

Support:



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