• Oliver Sloup

Grain Express

Corn (May)

Fundamentals: Yesterday’s weekly export inspections came in at 1.636mmt, a marketing-year high. Planting is getting underway in the U.S., Texas is estimated to be 3% planted, 4% behind the five-year average pace. Corn planting in Mato Grosso is 55% complete, lagging the 5-year average pace, 80%. The next USDA report is March 9th.

Technicals: Corn futures drifted lower through yesterday’s session as long liquidation seemed to be the theme on the first trading day of the month. Futures closed right in our first support pocket, 536-540. We have broken down below here in the overnight session, if the Bulls fail to reclaim 536-540, we could see continued selling pressure towards our next support pocket, 517 ¾-523 ¼. This pocket represents the spike low from February 11th along with other previously important price points.

Bias: Bearish/Neutral Previous Session Bias: Bearish/Neutral

Resistance: 570 ¾-575*, 600* Pivot: 553 ¾-556 ¼ Support: 536-540**, 517 ¾-523 ¼***

Soybeans (May)

Fundamentals: Yesterday’s weekly export inspections came in at 879tmt, a notch above what we saw last week. Soybean harvest in Mato Grosso is estimated to be 52% complete, a 17% increase from the previous week but still behind the average pace, 70%.

Technicals: Soybeans gapped lower Sunday night but ended the regular trading session near the lows of the day. That weakness has bled into pressure in the overnight/early morning trade with prices testing the 50-day moving average at 1383 ¼. 1393 ¼-1400 has been our pivot pocket and the battleground area between the Bulls and the Bears, a failure to reclaim ground above the pivot could lead to additional pressure.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 1434 ½-1436 ½**, 1445 ¾ Pivot: 1393 ¼-1400 Support: 1379**, 1333 ½-1335 ½*** Chicago Wheat (May)

Technicals: May wheat futures closed lower yesterday, for the third consecutive session. Futures are managing to rebound in the early morning hours, though the overnight session should be taken with a grain of salt. There has been a lot of chop in this market over the last several weeks, we are keeping our bias at Neutral going into today’s trade.

Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 674 ¾-679**, 693-700 ½* Pivot: 660 ½-666 ¾ Support: 652-656 ½**, 626-631 ½****


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