Fundamentals: Yesterday morning’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of 115,900 MT for 2020/2021--a marketing-year low--were down 74 percent from the previous week and 96 percent from the prior 4-week average. The USD is marking higher highs this week and is trying to carve out a convincing bottom. If the USD does continue to rally from these levels, it will be a headwind for commodities, including corn.
Technicals: Corn futures continued to drift lower yesterday on the back of a poor weekly export report, closing below our pivot pocket, 536-540. The market has rebounded back to that pocket in the early morning trade, the Bulls will need to see the “bounce” sustained through the floor open when we get more participation. A failure to achieve consecutive closes back above this pocket continues to give the Bear camp a near-term technical advantage.
Previous Session Bias: Bearish/Neutral
Resistance: 553 ¾-556 ¼**, 570 ¾-575*, 600*
Support: 517 ¾-523 ¼***
Fundamentals: Yesterday’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of 334,000 MT for 2020/2021 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 33 percent from the prior 4-week average. Attention is focused on next week’s USDA report, we will have estimates out in the coming days. Once we chew through the report, we will quickly turn to weather in the US, planting progress, and crop development.
Techncials: In yesterday morning’s report we said: “The Bulls have been able to defend our pivot pocket from 1393 ¼-1400 during the normal trading hours which continues to give them the technical advantage in the near term. If they can continue to defend this pocket, we could see an extension towards the top end of the recent range, 1434 ½-1436 ½.”. The market rallied to this technical resistance and retreated as this pocket held and triggered a round of profit-taking from buyers of technical support. Technical levels remain intact for today’s session. With prices right in the middle of our pivot and resistance, there is not a lot of urgency to do anything this morning.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 1434 ½-1436 ½**, 1445 ¾
Pivot: 1393 ¼-1400
Support: 1379**, 1333 ½-1335 ½***
Chicago Wheat (May)
Technicals: Wheat futures have been choppy, choppy recently and that is likely to continue. The USD is continuing to firm which would put a bigger headwind in wheat than some of the other grain markets. The market closed below first support and if we take out the lows from the 2nd, we could see the selling accelerate to the mid 620’s.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 660 ½-666 ¾***, 674 ¾-679**
Pivot: 652-656 ½
Support: 626-631 ½****
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