Grain Express

Corn (May)

Fundamentals: The “highly anticipated” USDA report was a dud, the USDA left just about everything but the date unchanged from the previous month. The average analyst estimate was looking for ending stocks to drop, so it was a Neutral/Bearish report in our opinion. The upward momentum remains intact for the new crop contract. Funds position size nearly double next week and if the fundamentals firm, it could provide a big lift for the market. Not just from fund buying, but a short squeeze on commercial shorts and producers.

Technicals: The market held relatively well yesterday but have softened in the overnight/early morning trade on a bit of a delayed reaction. Our pivot pocket remains intact from 536-540, a break and close below here could take us down to 517 ¾-523 ¼. If you are bullish on corn, the new crop contract may be worth a look.

Bias: Bearish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Resistance: 553 ¾-556 ¼**, 570 ¾-575*, 600*

Pivot: 536-540

Support: 529 1/4-530**, 517 ¾-523 ¼***

Soybeans (May)

Fundamentals: May soybean futures saw some pressure right after the report but managed to stabilize into the afternoon session, on what we saw as a Neutral/Bearish USDA report. It seems we are getting a little bit of a delayed reaction in the overnight/early morning trade as weakness sweeps in. There are still serious concerns about the weather situation in South America, much of which is probably too recent to be taken into account for yesterday’s USDA report. It is highly likely that we continue to see SA production walked back from these levels. How much of that is priced in, that is the million-dollar question.

Tehcnicals: The market tested and failed against resistance in the overnight session, to a T, we have had that defined as 1442-1445 ¾. The market has now pulled back and is trading below our pivot pocket, 1434-1436 ½. If this negative price action is confirmed via more participation on the “floor open”, it could open the door for a retest of 1393 ¼-1400. We are moving our near-term bias to outright Neutral. As with corn, the new crop contract for soybeans remains more constructive than front-month futures.

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 1442-1445 ¾*, 1460*

Pivot: 1434 ½-1436 ½

Support: 1393 ¼-1400***, 1379**, 1333 ½-1335 ½***

Chicago Wheat (May)

Technicals: May wheat futures are continuing their choppy trade, providing plenty of opportunities for short-term traders. If the Bulls fail to defend the pivot pocket from 652-656 ½, the bears could pounce and we could see a retest of the low end of this year’s range, 626-631 ½.

Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Resistance: 660 ½-666 ¾***, 674 ¾-679**

Pivot: 652-656 ½

Support: 639 ½-641**, 626-631 ½****

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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