• Oliver Sloup

Grain Express

BREAKING: March 19, 2021—Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 800,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to China during the 2020/2021 marketing year.

Corn (May)


Fundamentals: Corn got shellacked yesterday, along with many other commodities. Crude oil dropping 8% certainly did not do any favors for the Bull camp. The USDA announced the third consecutive flash sale to China, yesterday morning. Yesterday’s sale was for 696,000 metric tons for the 2020/2021. Yesterday’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of 985,900 MT for 2020/2021 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. For 2021/2022, net sales of 240,900 MT were reported. April options expire next Friday, that will be something to keep a close eye on next week. Past that, attention will be on the stocks and prospective plantings report at the end of the month. We hope to have estimates out by next week.


Technicals: Corn futures failed to achieve a conviction move above our pivot pocket (previously resistance), that failure along with pressure from a broad-based risk-off environment dropped prices back to levels not seen since…..Monday. In yesterday’s report, we noted that a failure against 553 ¾-556 ¼ “could take us back to the low end of the recent range, the mid 530’s.”. That rejection has moved our near-term bias to Neutral.


Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish


Resistance: 570 ¾-575*, 600*

Pivot: 553 ¾-556 ¼

Support: 536-540***, 517 ¾-523 ¼***

Soybeans (May)


Fundamentals: Soybeans got taken to the woodshed yesterday as there was a broad-based risk off environment through the commodity space. Yesterday’s weekly export sales report showed Net sales of 202,400 MT for 2020/2021 were down 42 percent from the previous week and 31 percent from the prior 4-week average.


Technicals: May soybeans broke down yesterday, closing below significant support, moving our near-term bias to Neutral. If the Bulls cannot reclaim the psychologically significant 1400 handle, we could see the selling snowball and accelerate.


Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish


Resistance: 1434 ½-1436 ½***, 1442-1445 ¾*, 1460*

Pivot: 1393 ¼-1400

Support: 1379**, 1333 ½-1335 ½***

Chicago Wheat (May)


Technicals: Wheat futures broke lower yesterday, retesting our 4-star support pocket, 626-631 ½. A break and close below this pocket could open the door for accelerated selling pressure, with little in the way of support until closer to the psychologically significant $6.00 handle.


Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish


Resistance: 660 ½-666 ¾***, 674 ¾-679**

Pivot: 652-656 ½

Support: 626-631 ½****, 608**


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