Corn (December) Fundamentals: Yesterday’s weekly export inspections came in at 976,218 metric tons, above what we saw in the previous week and above what we saw for the same week last year. The weekly crop progress report showed that the corn harvest is 52% complete, 2% behind what analysts are expecting, but not a concern.
Technicals: December corn futures have retraced all the losses from last week’s bearish USDA report, supporting our thesis that a lot of the bearish news has been baked into the cake. The market finished yesterday’s session right in our (narrow) first resistance pocket, 532-533. If the Bulls can chew through this pocket with some conviction, we could see an extension towards 543 ¾-548 ½. This pocket represents a key Fibonacci retracement, the 100-day m moving average, and previously important price points. A notch above that is the psychologically significant 550 handle. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 532-533**, 544 -550****, 558** Pivot: 519-521 Support: 512 ¾-514 ¼***, 497 ½-507****
Soybeans (November) Fundamentals: Yesterday’s weekly export inspections came in at 2,298,315 metric tons, well above what we saw in the previous week (1,743,137) and close to what we saw for the same week last year. The weekly crop progress report showed that the corn harvest is 60% complete, 2% behind what analysts are expecting, but not a concern.
Technicals: Soybeans are a stone’s throw away from retracing the losses from last week’s bearish USDA report, supporting our view that a lot of the bearish news is now priced into the market. With the market trading over 40 cents off last week’s low and testing our 4-star resistance pocket, the near-term upside may be limited. We’ve defined that 4-star resistance pocket as 1227-1231 ¾. If the Bulls can chew through this pocket, it’s possible we see momentum traders push the market back above the 1250 level. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 1227-1231 ¾****, 1259 ¾-1262 ¾** Pivot: 1194 ¾-1200 Support: 1180-1185 ½****
Wheat (December) Fundamentals: Yesterday’s weekly export inspections report came in at a measly 139,753 metric tons, way below the 446,652 we saw in last week’s report and below the 242,007 we saw in the same week last year. Crop progress showed winter wheat is 70% planted, 3% behind expectations. 44% of the crop has emerged.
Technicals: Chicago wheat futures are testing the upper end of our resistance pocket, 743 ¾. A conviction breakout above or close above this level would neutralize our short-term bearish bias. The next resistance pocket comes in from 758 ½-760.
Bias: Bearish/Neutral Previous Session Bias: Bearish/Neutral Resistance: 740 ½-743 ¾***, 758 ½-760**** Pivot: 730-733 ¼ Support: 712 ¾-718 ½***, 698¾-703****
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