Grain Marketing Update
IMPORTANT: Tomorrow is First Notice in the July Grains. To avoid the risk of delivery please offset or roll positions before the close.
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Fundamentals: Corn futures took a nosedive last week as non-threatening weather removed additional premium from prices. All eyes will be on tomorrow’s Quarterly Stocks and Acreage report. If you recall, this was a circus of a report last year with December corn trading in a 42-cent range. The average analyst estimate grain stocks come in at 4.951 billion bushels. The average analyst estimate for acres comes in at 95.207 million acres. Weekly Crop Progress will be out after the close, analysts are expecting to see good/excellent conditions at 73%, up 1% from last week and 5% better than the 5-year average. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds added a net 8,339 contracts to their net short position, expanding it to 285,942.
Techncials: Corn futures are trading in positive territory in the early morning trade, but this is just relief after last week’s technical breakdown that brought September corn prices back near the contract lows from April. Previous support now becomes resistance, we see that as 328-330 ½. The Bear camp has the advantage until the Bulls can Achieve consecutive closes above this pocket.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 328-330 ½****, 338 ¼-339***,
Support: 314 ¼-317 ½****
Fundamentals: Soybean futures broke lower last week as concerns over threatening weather dissipated. All eyes will now be on tomorrow’s Quarterly Stocks and Acreage report. The average estimate for stocks is 1.392 billion bushels, down from 1.783 last year. The average estimate for acres come sin at 84.761 million acres. Crop Progress will be out after the close today, expectations are for good/excellent ratings to be at 71%, up 1% from last week and 5% above the 5-year average. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds bought 23,149 net contracts through June 23rd, extending their long position to 43,028 contracts.
Technicals: Soybean futures broke below the low end of the most recent range last week, accelerating the selling pressure down near 860, previous resistance, and the breakout point from the beginning of June. As mentioned in the Tech Talk video over the weekend, we believe this area represents value from a risk/reward perspective, but the Bulls must defend it on a closing basis. A failure to defend this area could open the door for another leg lower, 838-840 being the next meaningful support pocket.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 877 ½-882 ¼***, 902***
Support: 836 ¾-840 ¾****, 830-831**
Chicago Wheat (September)
Fundamentals: Wheat futures tried to hold ground while corn and beans took a dive, but wheat lost its grip on Friday which led to new contract lows for the September contract. Crop Progress will be out after the close, expectations are for good/excellent ratings to be at 75%, down 6% from last week. Winter wheat harvest is expected to be 40% complete. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 10,287 net contracts, expanding their net short position to 45,176 contracts. Tomorrow’s USDA report will be out at 11am CT, analysts are expecting to see wheat stocks at 980 million and all wheat acres at 44.718 million bushels.
Technicals: The wheat chart has been controlled by the bears for the better part of the last 3-months, and there is nothing over the last week that has changed that. Our bias remains Neutral as we see the risk of a relief rally offsetting potential downward movement. Previous support now becomes resistance, this comes in at 481. The more significant resistance pocket will come in from 497-502 ¼. Consecutive closes above this pocket would neutralize the technical landscape.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 497-502 ¼****
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Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com and 312-837-3938
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.