Grains & Livestock
Fundamentals: Export inspections came in at 1,030,000 metric tons, within the range of expectations. Yesterday was the first planting progress report of the year, showing corn 3% planted. As tractors start rolling and crops get put in the ground, weather will become increasingly important in the coming weeks.
Technicals: Over the last four sessions, corn has closed between 330 ½-332 ½, each session. This area was listed as our pivot-pocket prior to the stalemate, it was an important interaction point between the bulls/bears as it marked previous contract lows. Consecutive closes above here could spark that short covering rally to the mid 340’s. Consecutive closes below and the trend following traders will likely pounce. 325 ½ is the contract low, below there we are in uncharted territory and need to look at the continuous chart. The next support we see from using the continuous comes in from 313 ¾-315 ¼, the August 2016 lows.........Click this link to get the FULL report, or email Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 343 ¼-344 ¾**, 354-356 ¾***
Support: 325**, 313 ¾-315 ¼***
Fundamentals: Export inspections yesterday morning came in at 442,000 metric tons, within the range of expectations. Planting progress for soybeans will begin to be monitored in the coming weeks. Continued weakness is in the livestock complex has created concerns regarding feed needs, putting a bit of a wet blanket on the market.
Technicals: The market tried to suck buyers in at the top end of the range but now has them on their heels as prices retreat towards the low end of the recent range. Our pivot pocket remains intact, from 854-858 ¾ and will continue to be an inflection point. Consecutive closes above here could spark a recovery into the mid-880s, an area that represents a key retracement, moving average, and the breakdown point from April 1st. If the bull camp fails to defend this pivot pocket, a retest of contract lows is not out of the question.........Click this link to get the FULL report, or email Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 871 ¼-875**, 888 ½-889 ¾***
Pivot: 854-858 ¾
Support: 842-845 ¼***, 820-821**
Chicago Wheat (March)
Fundamentals: Weekly export inspections came in at 609,000 metric tons, above the top end of expectations. The market worked higher Sunday night and early Monday on concerns of weather, those higher prices were sold into on the “floor open”.
Technicals: In yesterday morning’s report we wrote: “The market is now threatening 4-star resistance, 564-568 ½. If you had bought in the mid 540’s, this would be an area to consider reducing.”. We have had that four-star resistance labled as 564-568 ½ (yesterday’s high, 564 ½). The market as retreated in the overnight/early morning trade, making anther run at significant support, 540 ½-542 ½.........Click this link to get the FULL report, or email Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 564-568 ½****, 587-590 ¾***, 600-603 ¼**
Support: 540 ½-542 ½****, 525-258 ¼****
Plant disruptions and a continuous flow of bad news over the last few days is weighing heavy on the livestock markets. With a kink in the chain, you can expect to see cutouts firm and cash cattle continue to drop, due to a continued demand for the finished product and a backlog in input supply. As mentioned, multiple times over the last month+, this is a futures market. And we’ve been talking about the market pricing in these very disruptions we are now seeing, take April live cattle for an example. We were trading as low as 91.075 on March 16th, yesterday’s close was 91.00. Does that mean the market has price everything in and the bottom is in? No, it can get worse before it gets better, but it does indicate the market has been doing fair job in pricing in these disruptions. Also, remember that just as the futures market tries to price in bad news prior to events, it also tries to price in good news. So, it is very possible that we see the market turn before all the bad news is in front of us. This whole cycle is where the saying, Buy the rumor, sell the news comes from.........Click this link to get the FULL report, or email Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com
Today’s Daily Limits
Live Cattle: 4.50
Feeder Cattle: 6.75
Lean Hogs: 5.50
Feel free to call/text/email, Oliver with any questions. Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com and 312-837-3938
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.