Grain Markets Erase Friday's Losses
Fundamentals: Yesterday’s weekly export inspections report came in at 1,008,000 metric tons, below the low end of estimates. A headline from Reuters noted frost in Brazil from Tuesday to Thursday, potentially having a negative impact. Crop progress came out after the close, which showed Good/Excellent ratings at 64%. 2% below expectations, 1% below last week, and 9% below last year. 4% of the crop is silking. Attention is quickly shifting to tomorrow’s USDA report, out at 11 AM CT. The average estimate for planted acres is 93.787, 2.643 million acres more than the prospective plantings report. US Grain stocks as of June 1st are expected to come in from 3.917-4.546 billion bushels, the average estimate being 4.144.
Technicals: The market had a strong rally yesterday, bouncing off trendline support and the 100-day moving average. The market rallied as much as 30 ¾ cents off the lows of the session, erasing all of Friday’s losses and then some. Previous resistance will now act as support, that comes in from 541-543. If the Bulls can defend this pocket, we could see a continuation towards 561-566.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 561-566***, 573 ¼-575**
Pivot: 541 ¾-543
Support: 528 ¾-532 ½***, 514 ¼-518 ¾****
Fundamentals: Yesterday’s weekly export inspections report came in at 104,000 metric tons, within the range of estimates. Yesterday’s crop progress report showed Good/Excellent ratings at 60%. 1% below expectations, unchanged from last week, and 11% below last year. Attention is quickly shifting to tomorrow’s USDA report, out at 11 AM CT. The average estimate for planted acres is 88.955 million acres, 1.355 million acres more than the prospective plantings report. US Grain stocks as of June 1st are expected to come in from .696-.952 billion bushels, the average estimate being .787.
Technicals: Soybeans staged an impressive rally yesterday, trading as much as 59 ¼ cents off Friday’s low. The market pulled back a hair overnight but was able to defend the 100-day moving average at 1297 ½. 1324 ¼-1331 ¾ is a meaningful pocket we are watching closely, this pocket represents support on May 26th, the breakdown point from June 17th, and resistance shortly after that monumental collapse. If the Bulls can chew through this pocket with come conviction, there is a decent amount of runway.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1324 ¼-1331 ¾***
Pivot: 1297 ½
Support: 1259 ¾-1267****, 1240 ½**
Chicago Wheat (September)
Technicals: Chicago wheat futures tested and have so far defended resistance yesterday and again in the overnight trade, which remains intact from 658-663. If the Bulls can achieve consecutive closes or a conviction close above this pocket, we could see additional relief come into the market to neutralize some of the bearish technicals.
Previous Session Bias: Bearish/Neutral
Resistance: 658-663***, 672-676 ½***
Support: 637-640****, 618 ½**, 594-600 ½****
Call/Text/Email, Oliver with any questions.
Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com and 312-837-3938
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